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Market Commentary

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Grains: Poised For Short-Covering Rally?

Monday’s crop progress report for wheat showed 45% of the crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the week prior and well over last year’s 30%.  Key producers like Kansas came in at 30%, Oklahoma at 36%, and Nebraska at 36%.  Better conditions were seen in Colorado at 53% and Texas 56%.

WXRISK.com, the Ag weather site, softened their forecast that previously called for  the next 15 days to be excessively wet in the western wheat belt with up to 8 inches of rain falling in Nort...

May 28, 2015
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Nasdaq Alert: Watch 15-Minute Opening Range

There’s a saying on The Street that anything obvious has no value. Perhaps the gap test-fill agenda was just a bit too obvious. Or, perhaps it was stunningly successful.

However one interprets it, the Nasdaq futures came within 11 points of the top of the 5/14 gap and then decided that was enough of a test, at least for now.

I noted in yesterday’s report that the High Volume Node around 4485-4491 had become key resistance and it was Wednesday’s spot to watch.

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An 11-point, 5-min rally bar c...

May 28, 2015
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Can EnerSys Shares Continue To Climb Higher?

On May 27, EnerSys, a $3 billion industrial battery manufacturer, confirmed their Q4 results and Q1 guidance that was reported just a few weeks ago. EPS for the previous quarter came in at $1.15 on revenue of $629.9M. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 14.97x , price to sales ratio of 1.17x, and a price to book ratio of 2.67x. EnerSys continues to grow earnings in the mid to high single digits on annual basis . Since the market cap isn’t that large and they’re a more “under the radar name”, E...

May 28, 2015
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Fed Speakers, Data Could Jolt E-Mini Into Action

The S&P 500 mini futures had a nice little recovery yesterday after Tuesday's dump. Now we need to see if the recovery continues, or if the market, which is now back to the intermediate term support/resistance area, will go up or down from here.

The current contract had an inside day yesterday, trading within Tuesday's day session range, but it pushed the price back up above 2119, which was April's high and the top boundary of the trading range for the past three months. The price action was...

May 28, 2015
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A Little Of This, Some Of That, And Enough Is Enough

There was a time when three TV channels, a handful of metropolitan newspapers, and local radio stations told us what we needed to know. True, you could buy a book or a magazine for in-depth information, but, generally, our sources were limited compared with today, which then forces the question: do we have too much information?

  • Almond milk sales are soaring, but is it good for you?

Here we go again. Eggs, coffee, and wine are three food sources that have gone through this ringer – good or bad...

May 27, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Don't Get Burned: Watch Yield Curve For Fed Clues

Interesting quote from Lawrence Lindsey at last week’s Peterson Foundation Fiscal Summit: “We’re at the point of absurdity. Maybe it made sense [ZIRP] when you had a crisis. It does not make sense now. At some point what is going to happen – and this gets to my eight or nine cataclysmic number [on a scale of 1 to 10] – is that we’re going to get a series of bad numbers – a little higher inflation, higher average hourly earnings or whatever – and the market is suddenly going to say, “Oh my God...

May 27, 2015
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Chart Warns S&P 500 Could Be Near Short-Term Top

The S&P 500 had a pretty interesting week in the run-up to the Memorial Day holiday. It made a new all-time high at 2134.72, and it closed Friday at 2126.06, the first time it has managed to close above the high set in April. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that the range for the week was extremely narrow — roughly 14 points, which is hardly a decent range for a single day — the momentum was very weak, and the volume was very low, as it has been for most of this month.

We got up there,...

May 26, 2015
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US Labor Market Coming To A Boil

Despite a recent host of weak and weaker than expected economic data the employment picture remains robust. Aside from one month of poor non-farm payrolls data the sector remains strong with positive expectations into the future. One proof of that is the rebound in NFP we saw for April. The number jumped back above 200,000 and into the range commonly agreed to represent health, if not strength, in job creation. Further evidence can be found in the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Index of Labo...

May 21, 2015
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Wheat Reality

Last Thursday’s weekly export sales report for wheat showed 115 thousand metric tons. That was old crop numbers with new crop numbers coming in at 142 thousand.  Clearly demand is not a driving force and for months hasn’t been in wheat.  Demand looks to remain weak until the new crop in the field shows its strength.  The Monday’s crop condition report showed 45% of the crop in good to excellent condition. We need over 60% good to excellent condition to make us a primary port of origin for hig...

May 20, 2015
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5000 Years of Data

Systematic futures traders are invariably plagued by the small set of available daily data upon which to develop and test strategies. The last data revolution was the introduction of 24 hour electronic contracts starting in 2000.  Only a few symbols go back that far and many of them start much later.   Although some futures have a longer history, it is not helpful to back-test prior to 2000 because markets changed radically with the introduction of electronic futures. Consequently systematic ...

May 13, 2015
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