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Market Commentary

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A Megaphone May Broadcast Good News, Or Not.

There are a lot of reasons to be cautious about the US equity markets right now. The S&P500 large cap index has more than tripled in the last 68 month; it has been five years since we last saw a 20% retracement.

There are disturbing anomalies. Small cap equities – which usually lead the market at inflection points – are not making new highs, while the large caps chalk up new highs literally every other day, eight in the last 15 trading days, in fact.

And the market just feels jittery. The “w...

Nov 24, 2014
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Apple, Our Pick Then Is A Winner Now

Our end of September TraderPlanet article outlining our outlook for Apple served our traders well.  The text from the original article is here:

The trend in AAPL is pointed higher in the daily and weekly time frames, which gives the larger bias clearly to the bulls.  With this as a starting point, dips to support can be viewed as buying opportunities.  Nearby support is 93.28 - 96.15.  The top of this zone of support was tested and held in September.  The lower boundary of the ascending tre...

Nov 24, 2014
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Where We Are Going We Don't Need Roads

It feels as if we’ve been here before.  The previous forecast for a high to the right shoulder on 9/19/14 looked good, but it was obviously incorrect. The evidence pointing to that high was like a Ford Edsel compared to the Lamborghini-like evidence pointing to a top now – a Lamborghini powered by a flux capacitor!

The Sept 9 breakdown from a flattened top counts 37 market days to the low on Oct 15. Thirty-seven market days later is Saturday, Nov 22.

Lindsay wrote of a 107-day short-term inte...

Nov 24, 2014
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March Coffee Futures: Trading Idea November 24, 2014

March ICE Coffee Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

See on the daily bar chart for March coffee futures that price action has been choppy and sideways recently. A move below solid chart support at the November low of 1.8540 would give the bears fresh downside momentum, to suggest a price downtrend in the near term. Such would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.6500 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy st...

Nov 24, 2014
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U.S. dollar, bonds, and stocks are rising.

U.S. dollar ETF absolute price rose to its highest level in more than 3 years on 11/21/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF absolute closing price rose to its highest level in a month on 11/21/14, suggesting renewed upside momentum.


The S&P 500 Composite Index finished at a new all-time closing price high to reconfirm its preexisting uptrend.

NYSE total volume rose 25% to a level 18% above its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising ...

Nov 24, 2014
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Featured Stories

More Featured Stories
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Playing Precious Metals And Not Losing Your Shirt

The precious metals markets, namely gold and silver, offer traders the allure of large profits.  However, high margins and unpredictable volatility are often too much for the average retail trader to handle.  Likewise, using unleveraged alternatives, such as the ETF, GLD, forces traders to face other obstacles, including inefficient price movement and hidden costs.  There are some alternative lower risk products available to those interested in dipping their toe into metals trading, but there...

Nov 18, 2014
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Track The Dark Pools With The Balance Of Power (BOP) Indicator

The most challenging aspect of the automated-order marketplace is to find an indicator that can reveal where the Dark Pools are accumulating a stock over time, and which stocks they are quietly rotating out of to lower their held shares of a required chartered stock.

Rotation and accumulation are hidden these days on Dark Pool venues that do not show the huge lot orders moving through the automated system. Before the year 2005, giant lot orders were either handled by market makers on the exch...

Nov 11, 2014
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The Consumer May Be Feeling Better this Holiday Season

The holiday season is just around the corner. Traders and economic watchers will be closely watching the Retail Sector given the dismal turnout by consumers in recent years. The XRT peaked in 2013 and since has traded sideways, until today.  There are clues that this year may be a different season for both the consumer and retailers alike, and traders will be following the XRT to signal a breakout.

 Figure 1, Weekly Chart of the XRT


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Lower Prices at the Pump

Beginning mid-summer, consumers...

Nov 10, 2014
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Growing CRO Industry & Acquisition of Covance (CVD) Put INC Research IPO in Spotlight

In a very busy week for IPOs, one deal that stands out from the pack is INC Research , a Contract Research Organization that solely focuses on conducting Phase 1 to Phase 4 clinical trials for biopharmaceutical and medical device companies.

Its 8.1 million share IPO is expected to price on November 6 within a range of $17-$20, and then open for trading the following morning.

There are a few primary aspects to this deal that caught my attention. First, from a fundamental perspective, the comp...

Nov 5, 2014
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The Indian Rupee And The Euro Carry Trade

Since the beginning of this year, the Indian rupee has rallied 8% against the euro after hitting a record low of INR/Euro 85. Investors bought rupees amid a renewed confidence in the newly-elected Modi government, while selling euros, as the European Central Bank gets ready to implement its quantitative easing policy.

Our analysis suggests the INR/Euro exchange rate will rally to 70-to-1 over the next two years, from 77-to-1 today. Given this, we recommend a long position in the rupee, funded...

Nov 5, 2014
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