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Market Commentary

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Crude Oil - What Commercial Traders Know

Crude oil’s slide has been well documented along with the causes and consequences. Prices have recovered a bit as we suggested they would, ahead of both the January and March Federal Open Market Committee meetings as detailed in, “Commercial Traders Ahead of the Fed.” The importance of this statement lies in the access the heads of the oil industry have to Washington. The energy industry is simply too big and too well informed to be caught off guard by legislative actions. As the oil market ...

Apr 27, 2015
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Delayed Decline

The recent forecast for a high on April 15 looked good as the Dow stalled out the next day and then dropped almost 280 points on April 17. But according to the forecast for the next low the “tax-day top” was supposed to precede a decline into late last week. Instead, the market has rallied from the low on April 17.  

Despite the single-date forecasts generated by my Hybrid-Lindsay approach it is important to remember there is a window of time surrounding these forecasts. Always allow at least...

Apr 27, 2015
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Fib Projection Reached- Super Bullish

Volume Profile is most useful during pullbacks, not when markets are making forays into uncharted territory. For that super bullish phase, I use Fibonacci extensions and weekly pivots.

One of the best ways to use Fib projections is to look for a confluence from two different ranges. We have a Fib confluence around the 4532 area, which happens to be where the futures are trading on Sunday evening as I write this. There is also a weekly half pivot here, so a pullback to close the last gap show...

Apr 27, 2015
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SPX: Choppy Week Ahead

Last week

Last week the S&P 500, the large-cap equities index, rose 1.75%, a decent rally for the week, and made a new all-time high for the close. It ended the week at 2117.69, just a few pennies above the high close set on March 2. The gain for the week was about 36 points.

It is encouraging to see a new high – the SPX also made an new intraday high at 2120.92 on Friday – and the Bulls will feast on the idea that the market closed near the high for the week and above the high of the previou...

Apr 27, 2015
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This Is Real – It Could Go Either Way

What is real? The question recalls youthful conversations, dialectics perhaps, in which the very nature our existence was debated. Clearly, the market dialectics is real, meaning on any given day one can find contrary opinion supported heartily by whatever analysis is used.

“My data says the market will go up; no, my data says the market will go down”. One or the other will be correct, which suggests, again, predicting the market is a 50-50 proposition for the most part. That is also real.

He...

Apr 24, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Old School Advice


Even with the prevalence of high speed trading and other complex algorithmic systems, it is often the tried and true strategies that can help you be successful over the long haul. Many investors try to reinvent the wheel, but often the most successful traders today have patterned their trading styles after those of the great traders of the past.


W.D. Gann


“How to Make Profits in Commodities” by W.D. Gann was written in the 1940s and updated in the early 1950s. It’s an excellent textbook-type...

Apr 27, 2015
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Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

“Trade what you see, not what you feel.”

This axiom of trading seems so right, it is undeniable that all traders need to strive to achieve it.  The only problem with this oft quoted remark is what you see is influenced by what you are feeling – no exceptions.  If only traders could see the facts clearly without feeling, then they would be freed from the tyranny of emotional reasoning.  Then trading would be easy.  But nothing could be further from the truth.

The truth is all thinking is emot...

Apr 24, 2015
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Worry No Worry – Earnings Growth Will Prevail

The market is, admittedly, on shaky footing right now. Economic data is not quite as strong as we would like to see, the FOMC and their rate hike is just around the corner, and 1st quarter earnings growth is not expected to be good.

I could go on and on about how the economic trends are still pointing to growth, or about how the FOMC rate hike has been expected for so long it has no choice but to be factored into current market values, but I won't. When you boil away all the day-to-day infor...

Apr 21, 2015
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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits

One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles.

This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters.

Using the wrong instrument or t...

Apr 20, 2015
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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading.

It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp:

When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader.

If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely, certainly d...

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