Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
Meaning the last year of a seven-year cycle in the Jewish calendar, the end of the past several Shemitahs have brought immense financial hardships to the world. The 1987 crash on Wall St. happened during Shemitah. The bond market was massacred in 1994. The 9/11 terror attacks happened in 2001 and the global economic crisis occurred in 2008.
The Shemitah Year is the seventh year of the seven-year agricultural cycle mandated by the Torah for the Land of Israel and is still observed in contempor...Read More
When markets opened on Monday, August 24, a slew of sell orders were already lined up, causing many computer systems to go haywire. Many brokers were locked out, and with market makers and specialists unwilling to take action, we saw enormous bid/ask spreads, stops being hit at very low levels, and frozen markets. This all occurred at the opening bell, and it was quickly fixed when some traders saw opportunity and dove right in on the buy side.
This was flash crash 2015, and it happened so qu...Read More
The bulk of our analysis focuses on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s weekly Commitment of Traders report. This report tracks the large position holders in every market broken down by, managed money, hedgers, index traders and small speculators. There are many ways to slice and parse this data.
We’ve found most of the low hanging fruit can be plucked using a simple combination of commercial traders’ sentiment combined with their nominal position relative to historical context. The ...Read More
Volume Profile shows the historical price levels at which buyers and sellers transacted business in a particular stock or ETF. In the long-run, the amount of volume at various price levels tends to be significant. In the short run, anything can happen.
In reviewing the long-term volume profile for AAPL recently, I noted the large unfilled gap around $76. The problem for owners of AAPL is that the largest volume in the stock also occurred at that level, so it becomes a price magnet. I don’t k...Read More
These are interesting times in the markets. In the course of two weeks the S&P500, the large cap index for US equities, has had both the biggest one-day drop and the biggest one-day rally since 2011. In a market where, until now, the range for the week was typically about 75 points, we have seen declines and rallies that moved that far in a couple of hours.
On Friday the SPX closed at 1988.87, up 17.98 points for a net weekly gain of 0.09%. But what it did to make that miniscule gain left man...Read More
Featured StoriesMore Featured Stories
In an August 22, 2015 interview, Egon von Greyerz, founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and GoldSwitzerland predicted “the most incredible bull market” in precious metals in the coming months.
With stock markets around the world apparently collapsing and the gold market rallying, von Greyerz said, “The perfect storm has now started. . .and this storm will turn into a hurricane probably in the next two months.”
Greyerz expects to see all stock markets down at leas...Read More
Is The Gold Bull Down For The Count?
The person who lives by hope will die by despair.
Over the years we have frequently stated that every that every major bull market will experience at least one back breaking correction. Usually the correction culminates with a 50% pullback from the highs. In the case of Gold, this would equate to a pullback to $960. The precious metal’s sector had a splendid lope that began in 2003 and ended with spectacular run in 2011. To think that th...Read More
Conventional wisdom tells us to avoid trading in the first few minutes that a market opens. The action is often volatile and seemingly unpredictable. May people wait for the first 15 minutes to pass to let the market “show its hand”.
In this article, we are going to discuss an opportunity that occurs very close to the open; in some cases, giving a trade entry in the first minute. This opportunity is one that you will be able to see quite clearly for yourself, if you take time over the coming...Read More
In this case study, Nathan overcame a common tendency and turned his trading around
Nathan’s trading results fell short of his expectations. Often, his first trades of the morning ended in losses, and this soured him for the rest of the day. Nathan knew the problem had to be mental, but wasn’t sure where to start.
There are many reasons traders lose money. How we think about those reasons and what we do about it can make all the difference.
Nathan’s Thinking Problem
Nathan was blaming t...Read More
Berkeley professor Terrance Odean points out that decisions to sell are not made in the same way as decisions to buy. As the market appears to be in a swoon, let’s explore this timely topic a bit further.
It’s relatively easy to manage winning trades. There is little stress and plenty of self-congratulation. Indeed, studies show that investors and traders quickly take credit for trades that have positive outcomes. Whatever stress one might feel typically comes from the fear of giving back g...Read More