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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

A New Market Pattern – Crazy, Right?

I am seeing a general pattern in the market as of the last ten days and it is shaped like a skier climbing a semi-steep hill then skiing down a 30-degree slope, then coming up to a ski jump, going off, landing, then shooting off a cornice virtually straight down the face, then skiing across the flat, then climbing a small but steeper hill, dropping down a short face, then a climb up, a climb down, a climb up, and a climb down, an then beginning another climb up.  I call this the “Crazy, Drunk...

Sep 30, 2014
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December E-Mini S&P Futures: Trading Idea September 30, 2014

December E-Mini S&P Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

See on the daily bar chart for the December E-mini S&P futures that prices have backed down from the recent high, and a rare and bearish broadening pattern has formed. These patterns are suggestive of market tops being in place. The bears are fading. A move below chart support at Monday morning’s low of 1,955.75 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1,890.00, or below. Technical resis...

Sep 30, 2014
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Unusual Options Activity: Mellanox Technologies On The Move

Mellanox Technologies is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California and Yokneam, Israel, and provides ethernet and infiniband switches for servers and storage used in enterprise data centers.

MLNX shares are up just over 8% in 2014, performing comparably to the broader market.  Price action has been choppy, with shares trading in a 52-week range of $30.58-$46.04.

The Trade

Twenty-six minutes in Monday’s session, we saw a trader come in and buy 1,985 MLNX Oct 44 Calls for $0.85 while the stock was...

Sep 30, 2014
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High Risk For the Bulls: SPX Rally To 2,010

Last week, I mentioned the Dow was trading within a bearish wedge and could drop 1000 points. It is one third of the way to that 11,200 target, if that pattern does play out.

But if history is our guide, then the gap left open on the SPX at 2010 will be filled before any meaningful drop starts. So, even though the bigger picture pattern is looking much lower, you have to expect a rally to shake out the bears. Again, this isn’t certain, but we have seen it over and over again. Why would I exp...

Sep 30, 2014
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Natural Gas Breaks Out

If you can stomach the risk of an inherently risky market, natural gas futures are in the process of breaking out from a platform base.

What's more, a lack of any technical resistance overhead heightens the probability of follow-through buying in the coming weeks.

Chart Picture

I didn't add any indicators to this chart because the price action alone tells the story. From July through September a floor emerged at 3.82; four attempts by the bears to break it failed. Two tests confirmed a ceilin...

Sep 30, 2014
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Featured Stories

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How To Take Advantage Of High Frequency Trader Price Action

Recognizing the High Frequency Trader HFT footprint on a stock chart, presents ways for individual traders to use the candlestick patterns created to their advantage. HFT orders are algorithms which are computer programs that are automated, and occur at speeds on the millisecond scale. Therefore traders will find their orders have been front run by the HFTs, if they try to enter after an HFT order triggers.

The HFT footprint is unique on a stock chart, and there is no other technical candlesti...

Sep 29, 2014
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Women On Wall Street

A Discussion about Optimizing Career Development on Wall Street
Hosted By NYSSA with collaboration from the MTA’s Women in Technical Analysis Group.



Billed as a discussion about challenges faced by women on Wall Street, the Career Chat at NYSSA on September 3, 2014, was a well attended event which focused on keys to help women on Wall Street propel their careers forward.  The speakers at the event were the charismatic and energetic Carla Harris of Morgan Stanley and the insightful Linda Descano...

Sep 25, 2014
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The Euro Will Reach Parity With The U.S. Dollar In 2-3 Years: Stay Short

In the last six months, the Euro declined by 5% against the U.S. dollar as it became apparent that the European Central Bank has fallen far behind the U.S. Federal Reserve in its interest rate policymaking cycle.

While the Fed is set to end its “quantitative easing” policy of asset purchases this year and to raise interest rates by next year , the ECB is just beginning to formulate a quantitative easing policy of its own. There is also no indication that the ECB will raise its main refinanc...

Sep 24, 2014
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America's Role In the Middle East: Friends and Foes

The Professional Traders Opinion
Who’s on First?

Oddly enough, an ascribed Arabic proverb, dating to the 4th century BC, suggests “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”   

There is now a 21st century edited version of that proverb; once again emanating from the land of Arabia but this time will need Aristotle to discern the logic; it goes something like this: “the enemy of my enemy is only my friend until my enemy is overthrown by America, a new government is transitioned and then my enemy of my...

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A Guide To Alibaba’s (BABA) Record-Setting IPO

Over the past month, the IPO market hasn’t provided traders and investors with many compelling opportunities as activity has dried up. With Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba lined up to go public on September 19, the IPO market will soon come to life in dramatic fashion.

Demand has been so strong that its expected price range has been bumped higher to $66-$68 from the original expectation of $60-$66.  With BABA offering 320.1 million ADS, its projected proceeds of over $24.6 billion put it o...

Sep 17, 2014
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