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Market Commentary

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USDCHF – Renko Chart Technical Analysis

The US Federal Reserve, in its July meeting left the door open for interest rate hikes at its next meeting in September. The statement however cautioned the markets that ‘some’ improvement was needed in the US labour markets for the Central Bank to hike rates. This has significantly shifted the market focus to the two jobs reports, one of which is due this week for July and the other in early September. The US unemployment rate currently stands at 5.3%, albeit recent economic data on the empl...

Aug 3, 2015
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MCD Call Spread Sale- Downside Play for Chinese Exposure and Technical Resistance

Believe it or not, successful traders do not have a crystal ball.  All that he or she does successfully is find a potentially favorable set up and then put the odds in such a way where the reward makes sense to the risk.  Repeat this process many, many times and you have a system that works out in the long run.  I cannot tell which trade signals are the “good” ones.  I just have to let the numbers pan out.  So, let’s take a look at our play in McDonald’s .  I note two main things: MCD has hug...

Aug 3, 2015
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SPX -What Monday's Drop Tells US

In the 07/20/15 Trader Planet article, I mentioned that we had some bullish sentiment extremes and to expect lower. The SPX proceeded to drop 70 points in 7 days and made a low with some bearish sentiment extremes and now remains in a neutral trading environment when looking through an investor sentiment window.

The SPX has been trading within the 2040-2134 range for the last 3 months and each big move in either direction has that side of the trade thinking “this time is different” and they e...

Aug 3, 2015
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The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

This week’s commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index.

The July 27 commentary mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why “a tradable low is very close”. Indeed, last week’s low was seen that day.  The next forecast-high generated by the Hybrid Lindsay model is expected late in the week of August 10 or early during the week of August 17.  

The MSCI Emerg...

Aug 3, 2015
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10-Year Treasury Note Faces Stiff Resistance

We’ve begun to notice an anomaly within the interest rate futures where the volatility of the 10-Year Treasury Note is significantly higher than both shorter and longer dated maturities. Rather than attempting to answer why this may be, we’d rather focus on the trading opportunity it presents both within the interest rate sector and as an outright speculative trade.

First, let’s look at some data. The current trade setup involves the pricing distortion between the 10-year Treasury Note and it...

Aug 3, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Trading Psychology: Avoid The Prediction Trap

When I sit down to write for TraderPlanet, I typically mull over things that have occurred the same day in my coaching practice. It seems the fresher the experience, the more easily it can be milked for a few drops of insight.

Tonight I had the pleasure of working with an aspiring futures trader, a corporate pilot by day who has dreams of retiring from flying and leveraging his navigational abilities to become a successful private trader. This is indeed a dream shared by many.    

What’s inte...

Jul 31, 2015
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How To Profit In Thin Liquidity Environment

It is a fact that liquidity in the markets has been decreasing for some time now. This is not just a feature of the holiday period, but certainly is more noticeable between mid July to around the third week in August. Thinning liquidity is in part due to the over mature long term cycle we are finding ourselves in.

 

Banks cannot trade as they used to due to tightening of regulations, low interest rates having taken their toll on profits, and investors are nervous of the future. The closure of...

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Central Bankers Recreating Reality

A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgment based upon it.

Bertrand Russell

We will at some point in time publish a full in depth article in terms of how Central bankers have been actively employing psychological strategies to deceive the masses for generations. In essence, central bankers have been recreating reality, and the sad part is that the masses now assume that this altered reality is the new norm.  We are going to illustrate this by highlighting excerpts...

Jul 28, 2015
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Profit From “Hidden” Fundamentals Of Crude Oil

 

By: James Cordier, Michael Gross

 

An outsider watching the prices of crude oil shift up or down may think this is some sort of random event.

“Who is causing this?” gas buyers and clueless politicians often demand, as though an evil oil company executive is sitting in a room throwing a lever to turn the supply on or off.

As an investor willing to do a little homework, however, you’ll find projecting price ranges for oil is a little less populist rhetoric and little more science and common s...

Jul 28, 2015
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How To Develop True Trading Confidence

Brett found trading confidence elusive.  "If only I was more confident, I'd be a better trader," Brett explained.  What might cultivate more confidence?  "Making more winning trades, of course."  Sorry, that’s the wrong answer.

The Source of True Trading Confidence

Trading confidence doesn’t come from the number of winning trades, how much money was won, or other ‘statistical’ measures.  True trading confidence comes from mastering the various skills needed to read the market and execute and ...

Jul 27, 2015
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