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Market Commentary

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So, You Want To Trade, Eh?

So you want to trade, eh? You want someone to teach you how to trade, eh? Well, then, make sure the first question out of any potential teacher’s mouth is: “Do you have the stomach for it?”

Last Friday was the kind of day professional traders may or may not see coming, but it is expected nevertheless. So, when it happens they see opportunity, the kind of opportunity that has characterized the market for the last, oh, four or five years – sell, the rip, buy the dip. It takes a strong stomach t...

Apr 20, 2015
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Bean-Meal Bulls Gaining Control

July soybean meal fell through major support last week near $315 per ton. There are two points to be made on the market’s action at these levels. Although it may be a bit of a, “chicken and the egg” situation regarding what happened last week, we feel its outcome provides a major clue towards forward direction. Finally, since we only trade forward direction, we’ll focus on the predictive nature of the events surrounding last week’s action in the soybean-meal futures market.

We’ll focus on two...

Apr 20, 2015
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SPX: Waiting For Something To Happen

Last Week

Weekly Outlook - SP&P 500 Cash Index

The S&P 500 cash index closed at 2081.18 last Friday, down 20.88 points for net weekly loss of 1%.

It was a strange week: a sell-off on Monday and Tuesday, a strong overnight rally going into Wednesday, and a 40-point dump on Friday . “Unsettled” doesn't do it justice.

The sell-off might be seen as the result of depressing debt news from Greece and changes in market shorting rules from China. But in our view, it was an option game, with the pri...

Apr 20, 2015
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A Fly Broke The Bottle

As noted last week, the Nasdaq has been in a choppy and volatile consolidation for the last 6 weeks. These fast moves create SpeedZones that present little support or resistance to retracements. Bulls and bears get punished equally.    

The lower support level at 4370 was taken out on Friday, sending the market all the way down to the Low Volume Node at 4337. Remember, areas of low volume often serve as support in a downtrend.

I’m expecting a rally on Monday up to the resistance zone at 4370-...

Apr 19, 2015
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April Low in Equities

Although my Hybrid Lindsay forecasts always assume a small time window surrounds any single-date point forecast, the forecast for a high on April 15 was spot-on. The work of George Lindsay deals with time and tells us that the pullback following last week’s high should be over quickly.

There exists a forecast from the basic cycle for a low near April 24. Unfortunately, there appears to be no confirming forecast from the multiple cycle .  An inflection point in the Dow without confirmation ...

Apr 19, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits

One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles.

This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters.

Using the wrong instrument or t...

Apr 20, 2015
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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading.

It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp:

When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader.

If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely, certainly d...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy , a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public.

Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy , is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range.

The IPO features prominent underwriters, with Goldm...

Apr 15, 2015
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Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

W. D. Gann – a trader active during the first half of the 20th Century and a developer of unique analytical methods, such as the Square of 9 and Gann Angles –

was reputed to be able to predict within a few ticks the top and bottom of a stock’s range within a specified period of time.  Richard Wyckoff claimed that Gann’s trading ability was so good that it was “… probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.”

Picking Tops and Bottoms

Wouldn’t it be wonderful to be able to pick the top or...

Apr 14, 2015
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Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

When most people hear about day trading without charts, it conjures up images of other feats of derring-do –boxing with one arm tied behind your back, tightrope walking blindfolded, and bringing a knife to a gunfight all come to mind.

Are we discussing a feat possible only by the fearless few, or is it possible that Day Trading Without Charts is something that is quite straightforward? The fact is we are conditioned to use charts because every trading book, course, and educational forum is fo...

Apr 13, 2015
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