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Market Commentary

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Market Review and Forecast: Watch AAPL

The Nasdaq 100 still has not decided whether it will enter a corrective period or not. I suggest watching AAPL.

The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 Futures for 30 days and Apple for 50 days. The High Volume Node at 4441 is now critical support for the NQ. It directly corresponds to the $128 level for AAPL, which is why I show these charts side by side.

Although the NQ is much stronger than AAPL right now, if AAPL were to move down to fill the gap we have been ...

Mar 2, 2015
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SPX: Welcome To March; Watch Out For The Weather

The Real World

February was a terrific month for the stock market, but kind of crummy for everything else. Now we have to face the ides of March, when the weather changes and the world prepares for a reset. For investors, the future is not likely to be nearly as pleasant as the past.

First, the real world, and then we look at the market. In the real economy, February was a bust. The fundamental economic reports that are supposed to drive the market were almost universally dismal. US gross dom...

Mar 2, 2015
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Three Peaks And A Domed House?

A possible 3PDh formation can be seen on the Dow Industrials index chart. The peaks in Dec’13, July’14, and Sept’14 are the three peaks. At 9mo, the distance between peaks one and three meets Lindsay’s requirement that they be no more than 10mo apart.

The Sept/Oct. decline is the separating decline, and it is the only weak park of the formation. Lindsay was adamant that there be a base composed of two tests of the low. If the base were descending , it indicated a longer than normal domed hous...

Mar 1, 2015
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Why Does the Market Have To Do Something?

I often find myself hearing reasons or rationale for the stock market's movements, which really is just a collection of emotions all packaged together to form a result.  I have to ignore these comments. If I listen too carefully, I might get swept up trying to rationalize the action.   Without trying to be too obvious, too much fear and the market goes down, but, too much optimism, and the market goes higher.  We can see all of this played out on a chart too.  I've said many times, a technica...

Mar 1, 2015
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The Six Phases of Trader Development

There is a natural six-phase learning process many traders go through on the road to trading mastery. Not everyone completes the process, however, but knowing the developmental roadmap might help you stay the course during darker times.    

In the first phase, aspiring traders tend to think trading is easy, and for them it sometimes is. We call it “beginner’s luck.” Psychologically, it’s a valid phenomenon based on the fact that when one isn’t afraid, one tends to trade better. Nonetheless, t...

Mar 1, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another.

Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act , those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it.

But in 2014, President Barack Ob...

Feb 24, 2015
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Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals.  Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event.  The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart.  Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating.

The erratic behavior in pr...

Feb 23, 2015
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A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

The European Central Bank recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term.

The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe does not...

Feb 23, 2015
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How Hidden Flaws in Your Decision-Making Affect Your Trading

Too many traders, trading psychology means dealing with negative emotions like fear and greed.  We all know that negative emotions can cause trading difficulties.  However, many of us don’t know that the way we think can cause big problems, too.  We can be blind-sided by our thinking and decision making—especially when we use our normal, everyday problem-solving approaches in trading.  These are traders’ mental blind spots, and they crop up in every trader’s trading.  The irony is we usually ...

Feb 20, 2015
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The Life-Cycles of Stocks Part 1: Tesla Motors

In many ways, stocks are like people. They each have their own “life-cycle” of birth, growth, maturity, and eventually death.” What sets stocks apart from humans, however, is that some of the best companies are able to have several life-cycles, as they continually re-invent themselves by developing new, innovative products that in turn drive a new sales cycle and, hence, a new price cycle in the shares of their respective stocks. There are certain common characteristics of “sentiment” that dr...

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