Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
Gold lost $8.90/oz. last week to close at $1,137.10 but on Friday printed an engulfing bullish candlestick. Gold gained $22.90 on Friday marking last week’s expected cycle low and closed on the 89-dma. The 89-dma is an important marker of regime change but beware past Pinocchio breakouts. Any breakout through the 89-dma will find next resistance close-by from the 8/21/15 high near 1,160.
Gold has been below the 61.8% retracement of the 2008 rally since July. Long-term, this opens the door fo...Read More
Friday’s action was compelling and seemed to be telegraphed earlier in the week. But as we know, if this is truly a bottom then it is part of a longer process. Reversal patterns are powerful and when accompanied by declining volatility we have a clearer picture going forward. I was asked several times this past week to provide an analysis of a more predictive nature. Yet, if you know my style then that is not my approach, rather I will wait for the evidence to come in, analyze it and then mak...Read More
Feeder cattle futures rarely get much attention due to the live cattle futures contract. Live cattle futures have nearly ten times the open interest, therefore, the bulk of the large trading, whether speculative or hedging is done through the live cattle market. Individual traders however, can benefit by taking advantage of the feeder cattle contract’s greater size and volatility as long contract execution size is kept in the proper perspective. One of the keys I’ve found is the lower volume ...Read More
A few days ago I wrote an article for TraderPlanet with a very bearish target for the Nasdaq futures. The target, 3665, appears on the chart accompanying this article as well.
The good news for the Nasdaq bulls, which I assume is almost everyone, is that on Thursday the index stood on a “line-in-the-sand,” looked over the cliff and decided it was not yet time to jump.
That line in the sand is the Volume Profile Point of Control currently at 4125. That level was 4268 on Tuesday morning and fr...Read More
S&P 500: Bells they ring at the top
Years ago, when the internet was still a novelty, I was mentoring a young trader who started following something new, a message board that was carrying a series of articles entitled: Bells they ring at the top. My student asked, in all innocence “do they really ring a bell when the market reaches the top?”
If only. The idea started with Lloyds of London, which kept a ship’s bell in the underwriting room and rang it when there was important news – once for ...Read More
Featured StoriesMore Featured Stories
As we are at the end of the month and quarter, we take a look at the dismal performance of the indices over the last three months and have to make an assessment. The quarter is down well over 6% as of this writing, and certainly one of the worst performance in years. Our assessment is of the trend, which is always your friend! If the trend is lower, what is the reason to fight it?
While the markets are not technically in a bear market , there are more than 50% of stocks that are down more...Read More
Cycles are nothing else but expressions of energy: When you learn how to read and feel energy you can save yourself a lot of guesswork and frustration in the timing of your trades and investments.
The nature of the universe is cyclical, at least from our perspective as humans living on earth.
Each cycle has its very own unique energy field and feel. While cycles are predictable up to a degree, because they repeat, they never repeat in the same way, because our consciousness changes. As lo...Read More
Recently, I have explored the topics of the effect of personality on your trading and investing risk management, position sizing, and different analysis styles like technical and fundamental. In this post, I will delve into the current market conditions analysis, which I feel is extremely important and should be a crucial component of every successful trader’s toolbox.
When I started out years ago, I was a pure “Warren Buffet” type value investor. As a result of this, I was solely interest...Read More
Do You Have A Bread & Butter Trade? Here’s My Favorite Setup
Trade setups fall into one of two categories: bread & butter trades and all others. For the reasons you will read below, bread & butter trades are some of the best. I’ll show you my all-time favorite bread & butter setup.
Characteristics of a Bread & Butter Trade
Bread & butter trades have specific characteristics. These trade setups:
- Are reliable profit generators. This means that when traded properly, they have a solid win ra...
I am going to answer a question that many readers have been asking me recently.
This question is certainly not a new one, and is likely to always be asked in the foreseeable future. Why is this? It’s because the question relates to pretty much everyone.
Every new investor or trader begins with a different account balance. Some brokers demand a minimum amount to even open a brokerage account.
Some years into my career, I had begun with different account balance levels as I tried out differe...Read More