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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

March Corn Futures: Trading Idea December 19, 2014

March Corn Futures a Buying Opportunity on More Price Strength

See on the daily bar chart for March corn futures that prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend and have this week hit a five-month high. The bulls have good near-term technical momentum to suggest that prices will continue to trend sideways to higher in the near term. A move above chart resistance at this week’s high of $4.14 would become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be $4.50 or above. Technical support, f...

Dec 19, 2014
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Santa Comes Early In The USA

Foreign Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 10 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. Longer term,

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 9 years on 12/18/14, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.

The S&P 500 Composite Inde...

Dec 19, 2014
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Back To The Future, Almost

Is this back to the future? Actually, I should ask is this “almost” back to the future? In just two days, the market has clawed, well, that is not the right word. How about in just two days, the market has roared its way back to where it should be, just a little bit down from its record highs.

  • After their biggest six-day tumble in three years, European shares have regained more than half of their losses, jumping the most since November 2011 today.
  • U.S. stocks rose, after the biggest jump in a...
Dec 18, 2014
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Better Stops Make Better Trades

Over the last 10 days, the Average True Range of a 60-minute bar in the NASDAQ futures has increased from around six points to 18 points. Why might this be important to know, even if you don’t trade that particular market?

You may have heard the phrase “More is different.” It means that incremental changes can make a qualitative difference, not just an arithmetic difference. An example of this is when the temperature of water drops from 33 degrees to 31 degrees – liquid becomes solid.

This “...

Dec 18, 2014
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Buy The February E-Mini S&P 500

In the last FOMC meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve decided to leave in every observer’s favorite phrase “considerable time.” When the Fed says “considerable time,” it reminds me of being a kid, asking your parents for something and getting the reply, “maybe later.” Maybe later? What does that mean? Is it yes or no and when is later?  The Fedspeak translator 2014 still hasn’t told me what “considerable time” equates to on the calendar.

What we do know from the Fed’s statement and follow...

Dec 18, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Holiday Stress and Trading Pressure: How to S.T.O.P. the Torment

The holiday season is here.  It’s time for celebrating and good cheer.  It’s also a time of heightened stress.  For many traders, who already feel lots of stress, the holidays can feel doubly difficult. 

Trading and Holiday Stress

We all know trading stress.  Recent losses and drawdowns can bring on stress.  So can managing a position, especially if it backs up on you.  Even profitable positions can be stressful.  We don’t normally think about profitable trades as stressful, but I have seen m...

Dec 16, 2014
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RSI, Better Price Oscillator Than MACD

Most traders are unaware there are three types of oscillators used for stock analysis. These are based on three different data streams –

  • Price Oscillators that use price and time data,
  • Volume Oscillators that use quantity and time,
  • Hybrid Oscillators that use price, quantity, and time.

There are innumerable price and time indicators and many are oscillators, but one stands out from all the rest – Relative Strength Index . It is not the most popular, but it is the best price oscillator for sho...

Dec 16, 2014
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Trading Fears – Why We Have Them And What To Do About Them

Trading fears are not the sole domain of new traders, actually far from it. Much misunderstood, fear can hit at any time. The real issue about trading fears has to do with bumping up against your thresholds, which can happen at any time.

Growth and Development, Evolutionary Universal Laws

You are growing and changing all the time, for the most part not noticing that it is happening. However, when an evolutionary impulse hits, and you are standing in the way, like most people are, it can get ...

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Planning For Retirement? Plan Again

It's Christmas time. Everyone has been good little boys and girls, working diligently these past 40 years or more, marching toward America's promise, the golden years when one can lay down the work tools and enjoy the comforts of retirement.

A False Promise

The post-war generation – World War II – came back and raised families based on a simple promise –work hard, buy a house, save money, and when old enough, retire, as in stop working. Now, their children are ready to realize that promise an...

Dec 9, 2014
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Estimated Tax Payments, A Primer For Traders

For the majority of Americans, income taxes are collected on a pay-as-you go basis through the automatic withholding on their wages through their employers. However, if you receive substantial income from dividends, interest, business income, and/or capital gains, you should check your estimated tax liability to verify if you need to make estimated tax payments. Failure to pay a required estimated tax installment will subject you to a penalty based on the prevailing IRS interest rate applied ...

Dec 9, 2014
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