Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
As we wind down the dog days of summer, the usual complaints are heard daily about markets: volatility is low, the markets don't move, volume is pathetic, the action is too thin to trade. Well, I can certainly understand the concern, and with a VIX settling in just under 14% for nearly two months, that is indicative of a sleepy market. We are trained to believe the markets are vulnerable to downside when participants show complacency, and that has certainly been the case since the 'Brexit'...Read More
Gold lost $18.90/oz. last week and closed on Friday at $1,321.50 . Resistance is at 1,365 and support is near 1,310. A break of 1,310 would lock in the double top pattern marked in the chart below. Gold triggered the triangle on the daily chart. It measures a minimum decline to 1,280. Seasonality is bullish in September.
Longer term, the weekly Coppock failed to confirm the recent high supporting expectations of an important top. An impulsive five waves down from 2011 tells us the decline was...
We’ve been discussing a new way of measuring market imbalance via the weekly Commitments of Traders reports. This week, we’ll compare our old method to the new method and see what it has to say about the silver futures’ recent decline.
There are several pieces of information on the included chart, which should make more sense once we walk you through it. The first two subgraphs display our tried and true Commitments of Traders discretionary methodology. This simple method has been robust acro...Read More
In a dull, dull week there was one faint sign of hope in the markets last week: the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System, the largest pension fund in the state, decided to drop the theoretical rate-of-return on its investments from 7.5 to seven per cent. Predictably, it drove the politicians mad with rage.
This is one of those tiny pebbles that can start a landslide. The TRS has pension obligations stretching over decades, and needs to be able to estimate how much it will earn on the money it...Read More
For Friday, both 2166.50 and 2179.25 should firmly contain intraday activity, beyond which the next notable level is expected intraday. Downside today, breaking/opening below 2166.50 signals 2160.25, able to contain selling through next week, once tested the 2186.75-88.75 region attainable again within 3-5 days. A settlement today below 2160.25 maintains a heavy dynamic into later next week, long-term support at 2122.25 then considered a 3-5 day target able to contain selling thro...Read More