Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
On this fine Monday morning, geopolitics slams the market, again, or so the media is suggesting. I am not sure why the news from either Ukraine or Gaza would be pushing the market down, as nothing is radically different this Monday morning as it was on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. Innocent people are still dying in the process of stupid people killing each other over their political ideologies. Sad as it is, what else is news?
- Investors appear to focus on corporate earnings which continue to ...
The CBOE Market Volatility index, or VIX, is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. The VIX moves inversely with equities so that when equities are rising, the VIX is falling and vice versa.
Important highs in equities usually arrive with a positive divergence in the VIX. A positive divergence occurs when the VIX leaves behind a higher low while equities print a higher high. We would normally expect the VIX to print lower l...Read More
December ICE Coffee Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness
See on the daily bar chart for December coffee futures that prices are in a three-month-old downtrend and last week hit a five-month low. The bears are in firm near-term technical control. A move in prices below solid chart support at 1.7000 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.4000 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at 1....Read More
Right now the media are flooded with the civil war in the Ukraine, a little less occupied with the Israeli offensive in Gaza, and have pretty much lost interest in the other two hot wars in the Middle East, Syria and Iraq .
But the market is a different story. The market has lost interest in all of them. The other half of the globe may be burning, but the S&P 500 shrugs it off and reaches for the sky. How come?
The brief answer is that in the short term markets rise or fall as the public per...Read More
The live cattle market’s roll has stalled through the month of July. There are a two interesting points to be made her. First of all, this is typically a period of seasonal strength in the cattle market. Secondly, there are internal factors suggesting that the seasonal highs for the August contract have been made.
August live cattle prices typically rise as expiration approaches. Historically, this has been due to weather patterns leaving overheated animals in sparse pastures unable to gain w...Read More
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The practice of rehypothecation is centuries old. It has been used to create “free” money supply and in recent times the Chinese have become rather fond of commodity funding deals in an attempt to leverage deals and grow their economy.
The model works, at least in theory, and while all is well one can extend the daisy chain, seemingly for ever…
The universe provides infinitely after all, doesn’t it? This is basic pop quantum physics. The difficulty arises in the very moment a link weakens an...Read More
The objective of any trading strategy is to identify trading entries with a high positive predictive value: i.e. the sensitivity and specificity of the order are likely to be successful close to 90% of the time.
In order to achieve this —the market must be defined or broken down into two separate energies: 1) price action or market structure and 2) indicator analysis. Both parameters provide separate information that must be integrated in order to evaluate the predictive value...Read More
The India Times recently reported that the Reserve Bank of India is planning to ship impure gold to the Bank of England to swap it for pure gold that can be traded as London pure bars.
If the objective is to exchange impure for pure bars that is very easily done. Any major refiner would be happy to smelt the gold, test it for impurities, remove the impurities, and then recast the gold at the purity India desires. The gold could then be shipped back to India, instead of being stored at the Ban...
Following in the footsteps of Rocket Fuel, Criteo , and YuMe , TubeMogul is set to become the latest digital advertising company to go public over the past several months. Like its peers before it, TUBE is growing its topline rapidly as its client base expands and as it generates more revenue per client.
Also like FUEL and YUME at the time of their IPOs, the company is bleeding red ink as it readies to go public. The encouraging news, however, is that its loss in 1Q14 was very narrow and its...
Daniel Kahneman’s contribution to the world of behavioural finance is well documented. Before you completely dismiss me as heretic daring to challenge a man as revered for his achievements as Nobel laureate psychologist Daniel Kahneman, I invite you to consider the following point:
Our reality, as has been described for thousands of years by the wisdom traditions and now shown to be correct by Quantum physics attests to the fact that reality as we experience it is not set in stone. Beliefs d...Read More