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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

September Will See the Money Flow

September is here and life will now get back to a routine for so many of us. For many market players, though, a September routine is filled with trepidation. The month has a bad reputation. Is it deserved?

Let’s look at the last five years to see how they turned out for September. Going back any further than five years seems irrelevant, as the market world changed forever in 2008.

True in 2008, the market fell almost 10% and in 2011, it fell 7%, but in four of the last five years , it has a c...

Sep 2, 2014
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December British Pound Futures: Trading Idea September 2, 2014

December British Pound Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

 See on the daily bar chart for the December British pound futures that prices are in a steep six-week-old downtrend and the bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. A move below chart support at the recent low of 1.6484 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.6200 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at 1.6600.

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Sep 2, 2014
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Navistar Reports Earnings This Week: Get Ready For Big Move

Navistar International Corp. is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell Wednesday.  

NAV shares are up over 1% in 2014, but the ride has not been a smooth one: the stock traded below $30 in February only to rise to above $38 in March.  Then in April the stock fell back below $32 only to retrace above $38 again in May, only to fall below $33 again that same month.  The stock has traded in a 52-week range of $29.08-$41.57.

Big Player

Regulatory filings earlier this month showed Car...

Sep 2, 2014
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Triangle Breakdown Makes Gold an Attractive Short

Recently I've been watching to see if an attractive reward-to-risk scenario would line up for short entry into gold futures. The pieces are falling into place.

The purpose of the accompanying weekly chart is to illustrate how the sideways trend since June 2013 could end up acting as a long pause within a downtrend from the peak in September 2011. A symmetrical triangle has formed and volatility has diminished since March of this year . This generally precedes a break higher or lower.

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Gold i...

Sep 2, 2014
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Health Care Stocks Gaining Strength, Agriculture Losing Strength

Health Care stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 8/29/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new high on 8/29/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Foreign Stocks ETF Relative Strength Ratio broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/29/14.

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 15 months on 8/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisti...

Sep 2, 2014
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Featured Stories

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5 Reasons To Consider Trading Binary Options

Binary options are becoming more and more popular each day. But are they just a fad, or a serious trading vehicle worth looking into? As a trading coach and trader with more than 15 years experience, I'm always being asked about new markets and new ideas. I must admit that at first I was a bit skeptical about binary options. So I opened a Nadex account and spent a few months evaluating binary options.

In the end I discovered that binary options have merit, and are a perfect complement to the ...

Sep 2, 2014
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The Versatility Of The 1-2-3 Iron Butterfly

Traders may be aware of the iron butterfly, a strategy that creates a limit on possible losses, in exchange for a limit on potential profits. Expanding this further, the 1-2-3 iron butterfly is a strategy consisting of three expiration dates and three butterflies.

The middle is a reverse iron butterfly. This structure means that half of the positions will always become profitable whether the stock price moves up or down. And even with no movement, half of the positions – all of the short optio...

Aug 27, 2014
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Yellen Pulls Away the Punch Bowl, Will Rates Rise?

Let's focus in on negative interest rates and the potential for gold to increase in value.

As the Fed met in Jackson Hole over the weekend, gold was trying to hold on at the $1,300 level. Using a negative real interest rate model, gold should be around $1,400. Why? There is lots of concern about global GDP growth maintaining itself.

Let's take a look at the overall metals landscape. Some precious metals appear to be doing well. Palladium is at a 13-year high and rhodium is up 45% from the start...

Aug 25, 2014
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Use Oscillators To Determine Market Direction (Or Not)

Oscillators come in a number of different forms such as stochastic, relative strength and the commodity channel index.  Although the mathematical equations are different in each, the underlying principal by which oscillator calculations are made remains the same. 

How They Work

All oscillators compare the high and low of a given market move to its close.  This is the reason that oscillators are a bounded set of indicators. As the close of a market move approaches its high, the oscillator tra...

Aug 20, 2014
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The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited


Russia was once described by Sir Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”  Those words, spoken in 1939, eloquently described the Western sense of Moscow as inscrutable and a menacing country that plays by its own rules; perhaps they are no different now with the extraordinary exception that today’s Russia is dressed in diplomat’s pinstripes folded around a pugilist’s muscle with a checkbook of an oil baron.  

What’s more, today Russia, along with China, Brazil, I...

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