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Market Commentary

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It Is All About The Storage

Whatever the reason for the market’s dramatic fall yesterday, it seems the market forgot about it today. Funny how that happens …

Anyway, I spent some time this morning reading about energy, one of my favorite topics these days. Part of that reading was about Tesla. You gotta give it to Elan Musk. That guy is a go-getter, and, perhaps, the singular leader in the move toward renewable energy.

  • US electric carmaker Tesla Motors has unveiled batteries that can power homes and businesses as it att...
May 1, 2015
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Further Fed Confusion

As hard as the Fed has tried to be transparent and data dependent, there are times when they can be downright confusing.  The statement that followed the April meeting had many wondering if/when the Fed would raise rates, and certainly the response following made everyone nauseous.  The following day was also odd as European/Asian markets were able to digest the statement and come to a conclusion.

It appears the Fed is frustrated, but not backed into a corner yet.  Certainly the timeline of g...

May 1, 2015
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Gap Hunt

The “Floor” we briefly enjoyed at the Weekly Pivot gave way on Thursday, sending the Nasdaq futures down to the Volume Profile Point of Control , at 4409. This price level has the largest volume for the entire look-back period and automatically acts as strong support.

While a bounce off the VPPOC  is expected, perhaps to 4450, the proximity of an unfilled gap at 4350-4363 suggests that the market is on an official gap hunt, which is normal during corrective periods in exuberant markets suc...

May 1, 2015
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Double Top Forming in the ES

Yesterday

The S&P500 mini futures had the kind of day on Thursday that makes long-term investors start trying to figure out if this time it really is the top. The June contract opened down, went down all day and breaking the short-term momentum lines, the 20/40-day moving averages, and closing below them.

Only a massive effort by the Plunge Protection Team – they tossed a third of the day's volume into the last hour at the bottom – managed to drag it off the low at 2070. But the contract s...

May 1, 2015
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Running out of Steam?

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve had everyone’s attention with the FOMC announcement. I don’t think there were any surprises as the Fed left interest rates unchanged…for now. Speculation continues about when a rate hike is coming. I think most Fed forecasters would agree that June is off the table, while some are circling the September meeting on their calendars.

The Fed has repeatedly told us they will rely on economic data to make their decision in regards to interest rates. The improving ...

Apr 30, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

 

2014 was a banner year for coffee prices as the market rallied off of Brazilian crop concerns right up through the critical “flowering” season in October. 

But as timely rains finally arrived  the market was forced to backtrack as projected crop damage ended up being much exaggerated.

This steady trend lower in prices made coffee an ideal market for call sellers for the past 6 months. The question becomes, is it still ideal for call sellers?

In our opinion, the answer to that question rema...

May 1, 2015
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Millenials – It Appears They Are Moving Out And In To Homes

Consumer and investor confidence dipped this past month. This, along with the other recent soft economic indicators, has led some analysts to lower GDP projections for 2015. So be it; let the predictions stand.

Me? I prefer to look past the month-to-month indicators. I look to indicators that are more long lasting, that are more predictive of a solid foundation for economic growth. One of those is real estate, a broad category, but because that, the far reaching fingers, the growth or non-gro...

Apr 28, 2015
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So Much For Ancient Greece and Biometrics Using The Eye

Today we go between ancient history and the future, which is now. We leave the market to its own devices, as it is again behaving as if it wants to go up. Maybe it is the tepid economic data coming out that has the market believing the Fed will remain sidelined until at least late in the year, or maybe it likes that spring is here. Whatever …

Greece is ancient history, you know Plato, the Iliad and the Odyssey, Homer, et al, but in today’s world, it appears the good folks of Greece do not wan...

Apr 27, 2015
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Old School Advice


Even with the prevalence of high speed trading and other complex algorithmic systems, it is often the tried and true strategies that can help you be successful over the long haul. Many investors try to reinvent the wheel, but often the most successful traders today have patterned their trading styles after those of the great traders of the past.


W.D. Gann


“How to Make Profits in Commodities” by W.D. Gann was written in the 1940s and updated in the early 1950s. It’s an excellent textbook-type...

Apr 27, 2015
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Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

“Trade what you see, not what you feel.”

This axiom of trading seems so right, it is undeniable that all traders need to strive to achieve it.  The only problem with this oft quoted remark is what you see is influenced by what you are feeling – no exceptions.  If only traders could see the facts clearly without feeling, then they would be freed from the tyranny of emotional reasoning.  Then trading would be easy.  But nothing could be further from the truth.

The truth is all thinking is emot...

Apr 24, 2015
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