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Market Commentary

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Gold Update: Downtrend Still Looks Good

On September 2 I wrote about an attractive short scenario in gold associated with a breakdown from a large symmetrical triangle formation. That breakdown ended up being pretty decisive. The evidence favors further downside ahead.

Technical Outlook

Specifically, in addition to the poor price structure, I'm looking at weekly momentum. Take a look at RSI averages at the bottom of the accompanying chart. The slow average stalled around the 50 midline in April. In the past two weeks, the indicato...

Sep 16, 2014
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The Largest Cap Stocks Are Gaining Strength, Commodities Are Losing Strength

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 8 months on 9/15/14 and is now systematically bullish. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 9/15/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture ...

Sep 16, 2014
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Conflicted? Yup Conflicted

“Conflicted” is the word today. Economic data is always conflicted, as it is today. Industrial Production is slightly down, but the Empire State Manufacturing Index is way up, almost double the previous reading.

Unemployment is higher than it should be, when you count the all the folks who have given up looking for a job, but …  

  • In the first half of this year, the hourly compensation in the U.S. nonfarm business sector increased 3 percent from the year before. That compares with an average ...
Sep 15, 2014
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December LIve Cattle Futures: Trading Idea September 15, 2014

Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures

See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices have backed well down from the recent contract high, including scoring a significantly bearish “key reversal” down, which is an early clue of a market top being in place. Prices also closed at a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Consider buying a put option on December live cattle futures, with a downside price objective of $150.00, or below. The option expir...

Sep 15, 2014
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Beyond All Doubt: The Stock Market High Is In

I have two pieces of good news this week .
1.    You will never again have to read about how the 2011 sideways movement has caused confusion over from which date to count the last basic advance in the 2009 bull market.
2.    Even if the sideways movement confusion had not been resolved previously, time has taken care of the any lingering uncertainties.

[Editor's note: Read Carlson's related analysis: A Top Is Near Or Here: 6-Month Cycle Highs In The S&P 500.]

The last several months have been s...

Sep 15, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Sixth Anniversary Of Lehman Collapse: Time To Watch Financials

This month marks the sixth year after Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11, an act that served as a precursor to market meltdown of October 2008.   

Six years later, and despite the amazing recovery for the general market since the market bottomed in 2009, the financials as a sector continues to lag.  

Figure 1, the 10-year PerfChart for the S&P Sector ETFs, depicts the Financials relative weakness during a decade plagued by low interest rates that created an environment for risk taking ending...

Sep 15, 2014
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A Game Plan For Trading Stocks In The Fourth Quarter: Window Dressing

Get ready for the most active season in the stock market.
 
The last quarter has the highest trading activity of the year for the stock market and for the market in general.

Here are some of the major events that traders are ready to speculate upon heading into the fourth quarter:

1.    Last earning season of the year – main reason why market will accelerate its action into the year end
2.    Black Friday / Cyber Monday so-called Cornucopia Trading
3.    Christmas Rally
4.    Quarterly Expiration /...

Sep 11, 2014
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Yes, The Market Will Crash: Here's Your Checklist To Prepare For It

With the Dow recently surging past 17,000, the debate is on about whether it is a bubble that is looking for a pinprick or if it is a strong bull market that will power past 18,000 and beyond.

Yes…it could definitely go to 18,000 or 19,000 or more in the short term because the main driver is not a bullish economy…it is the bullish impact of Federal Reserve policy. In other words, this is an artificial bull market that is driven by monetary stimulus. The danger of a pull-back or a sharp correc...

Sep 10, 2014
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Performance Anxiety For Traders: 5 Ways to Overcome It

Performance anxiety for traders is the fear, or persistent phobia which may arise in a trader by the requirement to take a real trade, in real time, with real money whether actually or potentially.

There are many causes of this anxiety which many times leave a new trader with too much fear to really trade. Fear sends them out of the markets to go join the 90% that did not make it. This fear can arise from past losses that were so big and traumatizing that a trader can’t bear the potential of...

Sep 9, 2014
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Create Personalized Charts And Displays with Excel®

In previous articles I have detailed how to use Excel’s data visualization functionality to highlight market information. The data is brought into Excel using Microsoft’s RTD syntax from a market information and trading platform.

The article, Excel Heat Mapping For Market Data Visualization, shows the steps to heat map percent net change and color those markets that were at the extremes of percent change up or down for the day.  A separate article, Use Excel Sparklines For Data Visualization,...

Sep 3, 2014
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