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Market Commentary

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December Cotton Futures: Trading Idea August 22, 2014

December cotton futures a buying opportunity on more price strength.

 

See on the daily bar chart for December cotton futures that prices have made a good rebound from the recent contract low and on Thursday hit a four-week high. Prices are now in a fledgling uptrend. A close above chart resistance at 67.00 cents would give the bulls better upside technical momentum and it would also become a buying opportunity. The upside objective would be 74.00 cents, or above. Technical support, for which...

Aug 22, 2014
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NASDAQ 100 Stocks Gaining Strength, Gold and Silver Losing Strength

Technology stock sector ETF absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/21/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/21/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Financial stock sector ETF absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 years on 8/21/14, possibly signaling a renewal of its 5-year uptrend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury...

Aug 22, 2014
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Where Do You Think We Go From Here?

I am not sure where to begin this morning, but I guess the place best for me is with the following headline from yesterday.

  • Fed Officials Said Job Gains May Bring Faster Interest-Rate Rise

That headline should have spooked the market and it did, but as quickly as the market dove yesterday, it came back up.

  • U.S. stock prices trimmed gains after the release of the minutes but quickly recovered the lost ground. At the same time, the U.S. dollar firmed against major currencies and yields for 10-y...
Aug 21, 2014
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December Japanese Yen Futures: Trading Idea August 21, 2014

December Japanese Yen Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

 See on the daily bar chart for the December Japanese yen that prices are in a four-week-old downtrend and have just hit a 4.5-month low. The bears have near-term technical momentum. A move below chart support at Thursday’s low of .9630 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be .9475 or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at .9700.

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Aug 21, 2014
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Run With The Bulls: Buy E-Mini Call Spread

The release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday gave the bulls enough energy to push the S&P 500 near record highs. The minutes from the July meeting revealed that Fed officials may be more aggressive than first thought in ending the current stimulus program. Many observers are marking the October Fed meeting as a strong possibility for ending the asset purchase program.

As always, we were reminded that the Fed will continue to monitor and be heavily influenced by jobs data in making policy deci...

Aug 21, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Use Oscillators To Determine Market Direction (Or Not)

Oscillators come in a number of different forms such as stochastic, relative strength and the commodity channel index.  Although the mathematical equations are different in each, the underlying principal by which oscillator calculations are made remains the same. 

How They Work

All oscillators compare the high and low of a given market move to its close.  This is the reason that oscillators are a bounded set of indicators. As the close of a market move approaches its high, the oscillator tra...

Aug 20, 2014
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The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited


Russia was once described by Sir Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”  Those words, spoken in 1939, eloquently described the Western sense of Moscow as inscrutable and a menacing country that plays by its own rules; perhaps they are no different now with the extraordinary exception that today’s Russia is dressed in diplomat’s pinstripes folded around a pugilist’s muscle with a checkbook of an oil baron.  

What’s more, today Russia, along with China, Brazil, I...

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Go Long: Concerns Over the Chinese Yuan’s Weakness Are Overblown

On March 6, 2013 we initiated a long recommendation for our clients on the Chinese currency, the yuan, through the purchase of offshore, yuan-denominated bonds an exchange traded fund.   DSUM closed 2013 with a 6.32% gain, the year’s best-performing bond instrument on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to a dismal performance of -4.83% for the average emerging market bond fund.

After this stellar performance, this year’s weakness in the yuan is no surprise to us.  While the U.S. Treasury and th...

Aug 18, 2014
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Trading Psychology: Clear Your Head

As traders, we try to maintain a high level of concentration and performance at all times. The focus is on trading plans and processes, risk and reward, indicators and charts, coding and strategies, and about a million other possibilities at any given time. Truly, it is impossible for any human to keep track of all the information available.

When you get to the point where nothing makes sense it’s time to look away for awhile. I call this “data fatigue” and it occurs on many time frames. In t...

Aug 18, 2014
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Alternative Assets: The Coming Silver Short Squeeze

Last year, total mine production of silver was 819 million ounces, but demand for silver was 1.1 billion ounces.

Therefore, there was a 262 million ounce shortfall in silver. Thus far, the shortage has been mostly met by using recycled silver and from government stockpiles. Even so, the shortage is there.

Looking At The Numbers

Recently published data points argued that recycled silver cannot continue to meet the gap between supply and demand. The supply of recycled silver dropped 24% last ye...

Aug 14, 2014
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