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Market Commentary

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The Nasdaq 100 Playbook

The Nasdaq 100 is an index comprised of the 100 largest Nasdaq stocks by market cap. This cap-weighted index is a well-watched benchmark because it is the Nasdaq’s version of the S&P 500. 

I recently discussed the technical criteria for calling a bear market in the S&P 500, which differs from the Nasdaq 100 due to differences in volatility. If the S&P 500 closes below the 13-ema on a monthly chart, with a broken multi-year uptrend line, it suggests the start of a bear market. For “confirmati...

Feb 8, 2016
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SPX: Beware the War of 1812

The S&P 500 cash index closed at 1880.05 last Friday, down 26.85 points for net weekly loss of 1.40%.

Friday was especially brutal, one big red candle than carried the price right back down to the recent support around 1875, extinguishing all the gains made a week earlier, and reminding traders that there is a very big and very empty void below the current price.

The number to watch is 1812 – think about the last time the US was invaded by foreign troops – which is approximately the level wh...

Feb 8, 2016
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Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Last week’s forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st was a perfect hit.  As of last Friday, equities have fallen 261 points since last Monday’s high.

Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.

If 30.00 is broken again, my price forecasting model generates a target of 22.90. However, a break out above the 34-dma would be bullish and a close above...

Feb 7, 2016
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Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?

Another week and another seven days of conflicting market information. While the domestic unemployment picture lends credence to the Fed’s actions, global economic slack leaves the world second guessing the Fed’s decision. The end result has led to bond spreads foreshadowing a global economic slowdown while the equity markets tank. We’ve written before that the powers that be will do everything they can to keep the global economy from coming off the rails. While we may make solid cases for ju...

Feb 7, 2016
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Stock Market Distribution Continues

We started a new month this past week, but it was like Deja Vu all over again.  The Groundhog declared an early spring on Tuesday, a change in weather.  But regarding markets, you could have fooled me.  It was the same action we have seen for weeks on end, and it doesn't seem to be letting up.  The vicious selling last week was magnified on Friday after a jobs report that seemed indicate the Fed may be trapped.  I'm not so sure about that, but the market speaks louder than my opinion. The sto...

Feb 7, 2016
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Featured Stories

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Day Trading Support System

What can I say guys, we all need a little help, a little support.  Day trading is a challenging business to say the least and some days we need all the help we can get.  Those losing days can be tough and sometimes we need to seek council from someone we trust, but we need to be careful where we look for support because negative feedback can be devastating if we listen to the wrong people.

Many day traders seek support from friends and family, although SOMETIMES the ones closest to us can sup...

Feb 8, 2016
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Using ETF Fund Flows to play Defense

We are now in February and the major US Indices can now be considered in bear markets.  So, how should one position themselves for a rocky 2016?  Let’s examine where the institutional money is flowing.  Evaluating ETF fund flows daily identifies trends and major market shifts; weekly and monthly evaluations will reveal general trends.  Why?  Funds and RIAs are now using ETFs as an asset allocation model; therefore, watching these day to day movements can provide clues regarding how funds are...

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Will Oil Prices Rise or Fall? | A 27 Year History on the Charts Tells the Story

Bloomberg says oil  will go as low as $10.00 a barrel whereas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens says we could be headed for higher oil prices; no matter how you slice it, both of these sources could be right.   The market is going to do what the market is going to do, but there are solid reasons for oil prices to rise and fall, the past 3 decades has shown us this without a doubt.  There’s been a lot of talk from news sources and in the media that oil may be headed for $10.00 a barrel but some expe...

Feb 1, 2016
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Trading Tactics: How to Deal With a Slump

Self-realization is a good place to start in breaking a trading slump.  I know it seems obvious that when you're in a slump and trading poorly your results and account balance will reflect it.  Streaks work both ways of course, and when we are winning it is just as notable as when we are losing.  Understanding what is happening to you is awareness that may help you change some habits, which may also change your fortunes. 

When in a slump I will often take a break from trading, a 'timeout'.  ...

Jan 31, 2016
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Stock Market Crash: Is The Dow Headed For A 2008 Repeat?

Do not wait for ideal circumstances nor for the best opportunities; they will never come.
Anonymous

 

We could not help ourselves and put the word stock market crash in the title because every Tom, Dick and Harry is now chanting this tune.  Take a look at some of the recent headlines:

Is the stock market headed for a repeat of 2008?, On marketwatch.com

A stock-market crash of 50%+ would not be a surprise — or the worst-case scenario on Yahoo Finance

Stock Market Crash 2016: This Is The Worst ...

Jan 28, 2016
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