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Market Commentary

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Transition From Old Crop To New Crop: Musical Chairs For Beans

There continues to be optimal seasonal crop condition ratings for soybeans in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, high yield counts from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week for Nebraska, South Dakota, and Ohio, along with continued favorable central US weather forecasts that have continued to pressure corn and soybean values.

The volume of trade has been moderate with traders watching to see if strong domestic cash soy markets can offer a supportive hand to new crop soybeans for November and January ...

Aug 20, 2014
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The 5 Trader Personalities- Part 5: The Engineer

One’s personality is like the water a fish swims in. It colors our perceptions and decisions in a global manner that we are usually quite naive about. Frankly, one’s personality quirks often get a pass from others in the course of daily life , but when it comes to the financial arena, our personality strongly affects our bottom-line results.  

[Note: In my work with top traders I’ve developed a model that helps traders and investors understand themselves better.  This is Part 5 of a 5 Part se...

Aug 20, 2014
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Stock Watch: NetSuite Sees Accumulation By Large Players

As the market rally continues to mature, start looking for some of the "dregs" to get pulled back up.

"Dregs" stocks are former high flyers that have not had a particularly good run of things. This can be due to a drop in earnings growth or just bad luck from a lack of momentum.

Shorts Get Greedy

Either way, dregs stocks become beaten down and shorts start getting greedy. If these stocks start basing out, there will be buy stops hit from shorts as well as those looking to initiate new position...

Aug 20, 2014
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Trading Strategy: Trade Gaps Off A 15-Minute Chart

Trading on small time frames like a one to five minute chart can create a lot of noise and prevent you from riding out the bigger move.  

By focusing on a higher time frame like the fifteen minute chart you can tune out allot of the noise and possibly ride out a bigger move.

As a gap trader I will use the fifteen minute chart after noon market time.  This way it gives the stock some time to show me a trend and develop some price stability.  An example of this is a trade I took this week when ...

Aug 20, 2014
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BRIC Stocks Gaining Strength BUT Foreign Stocks Losing Strength?

BRIC Stocks Gaining Strength BUT Foreign Stocks Losing Strength?

U.S. dollar ETF absolute price rose to its highest level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio's rising 50-day SMA no doubt will cross above the rising 200-day SMA in a day or two, thereby turning systematically bullish .

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 6 months on 8/19/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend...

Aug 20, 2014
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Featured Stories

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The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited


Russia was once described by Sir Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”  Those words, spoken in 1939, eloquently described the Western sense of Moscow as inscrutable and a menacing country that plays by its own rules; perhaps they are no different now with the extraordinary exception that today’s Russia is dressed in diplomat’s pinstripes folded around a pugilist’s muscle with a checkbook of an oil baron.  

What’s more, today Russia, along with China, Brazil, I...

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Go Long: Concerns Over the Chinese Yuan’s Weakness Are Overblown

On March 6, 2013 we initiated a long recommendation for our clients on the Chinese currency, the yuan, through the purchase of offshore, yuan-denominated bonds an exchange traded fund.   DSUM closed 2013 with a 6.32% gain, the year’s best-performing bond instrument on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to a dismal performance of -4.83% for the average emerging market bond fund.

After this stellar performance, this year’s weakness in the yuan is no surprise to us.  While the U.S. Treasury and th...

Aug 18, 2014
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Trading Psychology: Clear Your Head

As traders, we try to maintain a high level of concentration and performance at all times. The focus is on trading plans and processes, risk and reward, indicators and charts, coding and strategies, and about a million other possibilities at any given time. Truly, it is impossible for any human to keep track of all the information available.

When you get to the point where nothing makes sense it’s time to look away for awhile. I call this “data fatigue” and it occurs on many time frames. In t...

Aug 18, 2014
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Alternative Assets: The Coming Silver Short Squeeze

Last year, total mine production of silver was 819 million ounces, but demand for silver was 1.1 billion ounces.

Therefore, there was a 262 million ounce shortfall in silver. Thus far, the shortage has been mostly met by using recycled silver and from government stockpiles. Even so, the shortage is there.

Looking At The Numbers

Recently published data points argued that recycled silver cannot continue to meet the gap between supply and demand. The supply of recycled silver dropped 24% last ye...

Aug 14, 2014
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GoPro IPO (GPRO): Should Traders “Capture” This Opportunity?

One of this year’s most highly-anticipated IPOs has been wearable, high-definition camera maker GoPro .  With the help of high-profile events like the Olympics and a Red Bull Super Bowl commercial featuring Felix Baugartner’s free fall from space, the popularity of these devices has sky-rocketed in recent years. This is evident in the company’s triple-digit and high double-digit topline growth rates.  Further, unlike most IPOs, GPRO actually has an established track record of profitability.

T...

Aug 13, 2014
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