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Use Seasonal Tendencies to Speculate on Commodity Futures and Options

Annual growing and economic cycles cause repetitive commodity price changes during particular times of the year.   The tendency of the market to repeat these price changes is known to commodity traders as seasonal analysis; I believe such analysis can benefit traders wishing to improve the probability of their commodity trading results. 

Seasonal tendencies are not perfect; in some years the move comes early, in other years it comes late, and on occasion, the anticipated seasonal pattern does...

Aug 31, 2016
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Corn Decline into Harvest

Corn continues to be under pressure despite a reduction from the latest crop tour by Pro Farmer. Late last week they lowered the national yield from 170.2 from 175.1 which is a sizable 4.9 bushels below the last USDA estimate. If Profarmer is correct ending stocks should drop just below 2 billion bushels. That’s still a sizable carry but would be considered bullish post harvest as South American inventories particularly in Brazil are sold out leaving the U.S. as a lone port of origin for sale...

Aug 31, 2016
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Stock Market Stagnation

The S&P 500 index has failed to make any significant upside progress since breaking out to new all-time highs in mid-July.  So is the SPX just stuck?  Has it run out of steam?

Click here to watch a video explaining how to read markets using volume at price.

The S&P 500 index has spent a month and half in a period of consolidation, true.  This consolidation however is amid a much larger uptrend.  In the larger context, this consolidation is healthy for the on-going uptrend. 

The bias remains ...

Aug 31, 2016
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Moving Beyond Dog Days of Summer - E-mini Longterm Outlook

NEAR and LONG TERM

The 2186.75-88.75 region can absorb weekly buying pressures, below which the 2163.25 formation remains ripe for retesting within the week, 2122.50 attainable within several weeks. On that note, a daily settlement below 2163.25 should yield longterm support at 2122.50 within 3-5 days, able to absorb selling through the balance of the year and above which 2284.75 remains a 2-3 month objective, 2370.00 expected over the next 5-8 months. A surprise settlement over the next se...

Aug 31, 2016
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Crude Oil Trading Levels - Labor Day Driving

SHORT-TERM

For Tuesday, 46.52 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 53.02 remains a 2-3 week target. Upside today, 57.54 should contain initial strength, while pushing/opening above 57.54 signals 48.10 intraday, able to contain session strength. Closing today above 48.10 indicates 49.16 tomorrow, also able to contain session highs when tested and the level to settle above for sustaining a bullish dynamic into later week; 51.67 considered a 3-5 day target above 49.16. Downside tod...

Aug 30, 2016
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