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Market Commentary

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How To Trade Around the Holidays -- Don't

As traders, we all want to be in the action and make great trades.  If we are not trading, we are not potentially making any money, if trading is your sole profession.  I remember when I first started out trading full time in 2006 and I would say to myself, “I am going to trade around the holidays.”  That was eight years ago, and I can tell you from experience you will save more money by not trading than you will by trying to trade the stock market during holidays, such as Thanksgiving or Chr...

Nov 26, 2014
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Sell into Wheat Rallies

Exports account for nearly half of US wheat usage. Unfortunately the two largest importers of US wheat last year, Brazil and China, have severely reduced buying of US wheat. As a result, the US export commitment is the fourth lowest of the past ten years.

In addition, East Coast hog and poultry producers have begun importing UK and French feed wheat, reducing domestic feed demand. Although futures have advanced sharply over the past two months in anticipation of lower Russian crop potential n...

Nov 26, 2014
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February Live Cattle Futures: Trading Idea November 26, 2014

February live cattle futures a selling opportunity on more price weakness. See on the daily bar chart for February live cattle futures that prices sold off sharply Monday. A move below solid chart support at this week’s low of $169.35 would produce near-term technical damage and give the bears fresh downside technical momentum. It would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $161.00, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop jus...

Nov 26, 2014
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Losing Energy

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 years on 11/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Energy Sector SPDR ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell below 7-year lows on 11/25/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend.

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 14 years on 11/25/14 and remains systematically bullish. In addition, QQQ absolute price closed at a new hig...

Nov 26, 2014
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No Reason To Change The Plan

More numbers are in and there are revisions to the US government’s second and third quarter economic data reports. Not that it matters, really, as they are lagging numbers, but they do show a stronger continuation of the economic pattern that has been happening now for years.

  • The economy in the U.S. expanded more than previously forecast in the third quarter, reflecting bigger gains in consumer spending and business investment and capping the strongest six months of growth in a decade.

True,...

Nov 25, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Trading Crude Oil Using Price & Volume across Multiple Time Frames

Crude oil has had a significant decline since June 2014.  Looking back through the lens of multiple timeframes we can see how price and volume gave clear indications a large decline was about to occur.  In particular, we can see at work some of the principles first described by Richard Wyckoff nearly a century ago and how these principles can be applied for excellent trade entry and exit locations as the modern market is unfolding.

A Reasonable Question

You may be thinking, “How could someone...

Nov 25, 2014
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Playing Precious Metals And Not Losing Your Shirt

The precious metals markets, namely gold and silver, offer traders the allure of large profits.  However, high margins and unpredictable volatility are often too much for the average retail trader to handle.  Likewise, using unleveraged alternatives, such as the ETF, GLD, forces traders to face other obstacles, including inefficient price movement and hidden costs.  There are some alternative lower risk products available to those interested in dipping their toe into metals trading, but there...

Nov 18, 2014
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Track The Dark Pools With The Balance Of Power (BOP) Indicator

The most challenging aspect of the automated-order marketplace is to find an indicator that can reveal where the Dark Pools are accumulating a stock over time, and which stocks they are quietly rotating out of to lower their held shares of a required chartered stock.

Rotation and accumulation are hidden these days on Dark Pool venues that do not show the huge lot orders moving through the automated system. Before the year 2005, giant lot orders were either handled by market makers on the exch...

Nov 11, 2014
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The Consumer May Be Feeling Better this Holiday Season

The holiday season is just around the corner. Traders and economic watchers will be closely watching the Retail Sector given the dismal turnout by consumers in recent years. The XRT peaked in 2013 and since has traded sideways, until today.  There are clues that this year may be a different season for both the consumer and retailers alike, and traders will be following the XRT to signal a breakout.

 Figure 1, Weekly Chart of the XRT


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Lower Prices at the Pump

Beginning mid-summer, consumers...

Nov 10, 2014
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Growing CRO Industry & Acquisition of Covance (CVD) Put INC Research IPO in Spotlight

In a very busy week for IPOs, one deal that stands out from the pack is INC Research , a Contract Research Organization that solely focuses on conducting Phase 1 to Phase 4 clinical trials for biopharmaceutical and medical device companies.

Its 8.1 million share IPO is expected to price on November 6 within a range of $17-$20, and then open for trading the following morning.

There are a few primary aspects to this deal that caught my attention. First, from a fundamental perspective, the comp...

Nov 5, 2014
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