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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary
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The Dow And Emerging Markets ETF EEM

This week’s commentary takes a look at emerging markets but first a review of the most recent Hybrid Lindsay forecast for the Dow Industrials index.

The July 27 commentary mentioned the official forecast for a low in the period July 24-31 but also explained why “a tradable low is very close”. Indeed, last week’s low was seen that day.  The next forecast-high generated by the Hybrid Lindsay model is expected late in the week of August 10 or early during the week of August 17.  

The MSCI Emerg...

Aug 3, 2015
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10-Year Treasury Note Faces Stiff Resistance

We’ve begun to notice an anomaly within the interest rate futures where the volatility of the 10-Year Treasury Note is significantly higher than both shorter and longer dated maturities. Rather than attempting to answer why this may be, we’d rather focus on the trading opportunity it presents both within the interest rate sector and as an outright speculative trade.

First, let’s look at some data. The current trade setup involves the pricing distortion between the 10-year Treasury Note and it...

Aug 3, 2015
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The Fed: The Mindset For A Downturn

I can hear it now from someone reading the title:  'A Ha  this guy is finally bearish after all this time -- I knew he would come around'.  That couldn't be further from the truth, in fact the bearish label is completely inaccurate.  I don't like labels, as when we describe ourselves bullish or bearish that puts us in a specific mindset unable to be flexible.  Hence, when we change our minds and decisions with changing markets our tactics are questioned.  In other words, don't put me in a box...

Aug 3, 2015
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US Stocks: Fear Index Is At Record Lows

There goes July. Did anybody notice? June started high and ended low. July started low and ended high. Except for the color of the candles on the chart, there wasn’t much to chose between them ... and not much to remember them by.

The US equity market, at least as represented by the Standard and Poor 500  , has now spent the first seven months of the year drifting along near the top of a long bull market, unable to go up and unwilling to go down. July was absolutely typical: it made a high a...

Aug 3, 2015
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US Stocks: Trade From The Long Side

In my last market update I characterized the 300+ point rally in the NQ as “unsustainable.” My initial target was 4492 and we hit 4497 on 7/28. This downside forecast was not due to any particular bearishness on my part. By nature, I’m actually more bullish than bearish, and in my own trading I prefer to trade from the long side.

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Nevertheless, the Volume Profile chart showed very weak volume on those final 100 points. Moreover, a bigger picture megaphone pattern had completed and the series...

Aug 3, 2015
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Featured Stories

More Featured Stories
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Trading Psychology: Avoid The Prediction Trap

When I sit down to write for TraderPlanet, I typically mull over things that have occurred the same day in my coaching practice. It seems the fresher the experience, the more easily it can be milked for a few drops of insight.

Tonight I had the pleasure of working with an aspiring futures trader, a corporate pilot by day who has dreams of retiring from flying and leveraging his navigational abilities to become a successful private trader. This is indeed a dream shared by many.    

What’s inte...

Jul 31, 2015
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How To Profit In Thin Liquidity Environment

It is a fact that liquidity in the markets has been decreasing for some time now. This is not just a feature of the holiday period, but certainly is more noticeable between mid July to around the third week in August. Thinning liquidity is in part due to the over mature long term cycle we are finding ourselves in.

 

Banks cannot trade as they used to due to tightening of regulations, low interest rates having taken their toll on profits, and investors are nervous of the future. The closure of...

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Central Bankers Recreating Reality

A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgment based upon it.

Bertrand Russell

We will at some point in time publish a full in depth article in terms of how Central bankers have been actively employing psychological strategies to deceive the masses for generations. In essence, central bankers have been recreating reality, and the sad part is that the masses now assume that this altered reality is the new norm.  We are going to illustrate this by highlighting excerpts...

Jul 28, 2015
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Profit From “Hidden” Fundamentals Of Crude Oil

 

By: James Cordier, Michael Gross

 

An outsider watching the prices of crude oil shift up or down may think this is some sort of random event.

“Who is causing this?” gas buyers and clueless politicians often demand, as though an evil oil company executive is sitting in a room throwing a lever to turn the supply on or off.

As an investor willing to do a little homework, however, you’ll find projecting price ranges for oil is a little less populist rhetoric and little more science and common s...

Jul 28, 2015
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How To Develop True Trading Confidence

Brett found trading confidence elusive.  "If only I was more confident, I'd be a better trader," Brett explained.  What might cultivate more confidence?  "Making more winning trades, of course."  Sorry, that’s the wrong answer.

The Source of True Trading Confidence

Trading confidence doesn’t come from the number of winning trades, how much money was won, or other ‘statistical’ measures.  True trading confidence comes from mastering the various skills needed to read the market and execute and ...

Jul 27, 2015
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