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Market Commentary

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Don't Let a Trade Define You

As traders and investors we often judge ourselves by the wins/losses in our buying/selling activities.  Yet, the results - while they do matter - are only a small part of the overall success you will achieve.  Many are destined to succeed based on their account growth, yet others consider success as it relates to longevity.  Regardless, one should not let their net worth equate to their self worth.  What do I mean here?  Don't let your bottom line, or even your last trade define who you are ...

Nov 23, 2014
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Go Get ‘Em Boys And Girls

Boom! Just like that the market leaps forward. At least thus far this morning it has leaped forward. Who knows if it will hold for the day, but, so far, the news of the day has created some excitement.  

  • China cut interest rates unexpectedly on Friday, stepping up efforts to support the world's second-biggest economy as it heads towards its slowest expansion in nearly a quarter of a century.

The above news tagged right along with commentary about Mr. Draghi considering QE for the European eco...

Nov 21, 2014
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Understanding “Then” Might Help You Take Advantage Now

The recent whipsaw market has confused many traders and investors. Specifically, the rise and then fall in volatility is most puzzling. Do emotions and money swing that quickly?  On the spectrum of fear/greed, the money flows back and forth like a windshield wiper, but as the markets move higher and higher, the fear of losing gains becomes more pronounced than the fear of losing out on future gains.

Back in mid-September, the VIX was coming in just above the yearly low , coming to rest in th...

Nov 21, 2014
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Finding Entry Into A Directional Trade

An important thing to remember is that my approach to directional trades is different when going into an earnings release cycle, rather than when outside of the earnings cycle. 

Outside of the earnings cycle, other factors trigger my entries.  Those factors could be fundamental in nature, or they might be based on unusual options activity. Most of the time, however, my entry is based on a technical trigger, which might well be a combination of these factors. 

An earnings play is much differen...

Nov 21, 2014
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What are the Masters of the Universe Buying?

You should never blindly follow the investment moves of anyone — not even Masters of the Universe like Carl Icahn or George Soros.   You never know what their investment game plan is or whether a stock position is part of a larger multi-stock trade.

That said, I do consider “guru” trades a nice starting point for further research.  If investors I respect and follow are piling into a stock, then it’s worth investigating.  So, without further ado, let’s see what the gurus are buying today. 

Gur...

Nov 21, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Playing Precious Metals And Not Losing Your Shirt

The precious metals markets, namely gold and silver, offer traders the allure of large profits.  However, high margins and unpredictable volatility are often too much for the average retail trader to handle.  Likewise, using unleveraged alternatives, such as the ETF, GLD, forces traders to face other obstacles, including inefficient price movement and hidden costs.  There are some alternative lower risk products available to those interested in dipping their toe into metals trading, but there...

Nov 18, 2014
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Track The Dark Pools With The Balance Of Power (BOP) Indicator

The most challenging aspect of the automated-order marketplace is to find an indicator that can reveal where the Dark Pools are accumulating a stock over time, and which stocks they are quietly rotating out of to lower their held shares of a required chartered stock.

Rotation and accumulation are hidden these days on Dark Pool venues that do not show the huge lot orders moving through the automated system. Before the year 2005, giant lot orders were either handled by market makers on the exch...

Nov 11, 2014
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The Consumer May Be Feeling Better this Holiday Season

The holiday season is just around the corner. Traders and economic watchers will be closely watching the Retail Sector given the dismal turnout by consumers in recent years. The XRT peaked in 2013 and since has traded sideways, until today.  There are clues that this year may be a different season for both the consumer and retailers alike, and traders will be following the XRT to signal a breakout.

 Figure 1, Weekly Chart of the XRT


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Lower Prices at the Pump

Beginning mid-summer, consumers...

Nov 10, 2014
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Growing CRO Industry & Acquisition of Covance (CVD) Put INC Research IPO in Spotlight

In a very busy week for IPOs, one deal that stands out from the pack is INC Research , a Contract Research Organization that solely focuses on conducting Phase 1 to Phase 4 clinical trials for biopharmaceutical and medical device companies.

Its 8.1 million share IPO is expected to price on November 6 within a range of $17-$20, and then open for trading the following morning.

There are a few primary aspects to this deal that caught my attention. First, from a fundamental perspective, the comp...

Nov 5, 2014
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The Indian Rupee And The Euro Carry Trade

Since the beginning of this year, the Indian rupee has rallied 8% against the euro after hitting a record low of INR/Euro 85. Investors bought rupees amid a renewed confidence in the newly-elected Modi government, while selling euros, as the European Central Bank gets ready to implement its quantitative easing policy.

Our analysis suggests the INR/Euro exchange rate will rally to 70-to-1 over the next two years, from 77-to-1 today. Given this, we recommend a long position in the rupee, funded...

Nov 5, 2014
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