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Market Commentary

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US Steel: Analysis Of A Trading Opportunity

This stock was blowing up on Stock Twits and Twitter this week. I’m speaking of United States Steel, which has overall been a pretty boring stock actually, at least it was. Most of my students were simply doing put sales or covered calls long term. Directionally, this was a hard one to really pinpoint until today.

Gap Is Key

I love this gap on X. It really ensured that any person, company or fund who sold X short is going to have to buy to close as of 7/30/14.  The black arrows show where the...

Jul 31, 2014
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NASDAQ 100 Gaining Strength, Utilities Losing Strength

NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 7/30/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Technology stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 7/30/14 and remains systematically bullish.

Energy stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio has weakened since peaking on 6/23/14 and is now systematically neutral.

Materials stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day SMA...

Jul 31, 2014
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Some Days Just Throw Me Off

My guess is that the bulls are doing a three-day ropes course thingamajig somewhere in the outback, far, far away from any news.

  • Economy in U.S. Grew 4% in Second Quarter vs. 3% Estimate
  • ADP Employment Report Shows Job Growth at 218,000 in July
  • Euro zone economic sentiment unexpectedly improved in July despite the deepening crisis between the West and Russia over Ukraine,

How else can I explain the market movement this morning? The above economic news is remarkably good, and those are just t...

Jul 30, 2014
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How To Play A Bear Put Spread On Bearish Gap Down

GlaxoSmithKline gapped down on earnings on July 23, 2014 breaking below $51.00 demand level.* 

Key Levels

Because of the gap, GSK now has overhead supply at $51.00 and potential demand at $48.00.  I will use the demand level as target one.

TroyJuly30.jpg

Trade Setup

I will look to take a short position with options if the stock trades below the gap down low at $50.01.  I will look to use a Bear Put Spread to capitalize on this trade.

Option Trade

Since I know the stock is broken on the gap down side I wil...

Jul 30, 2014
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November Soybean Futures: Trading Idea July 30, 2014

Consider Buying a Call Option on November Soybean Futures

 See on the daily bar chart for November soybean futures that prices took a beating in late June and early July. Recent price action has been choppier and hints of a market bottom being in place. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has just recently produced a bullish line crossover signal, whereby the thick blue MACD line crossed above the thin red “trigger” line. Also, the mo...

Jul 30, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Government Economic Data: Read Between The Lines

Last Sunday morning at 8:45 the U.S. State Department announced via Twitter that it had satellite images proving artillery was being fired from Russia into the Ukraine. And apart from the U.S. media, the world almost fell down laughing.

The 'proof' was a series of blurry photos taken by a commercial – not government – satellite. They show vague marks and dark spots labelled blast marks and shell craters from Russian rockets.

To the reporters covering the State Department, the pictures showed...

Jul 30, 2014
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What Could The End Of QE Mean For Markets?

The end of quantitative easing in the next few months, could lead to a drop in asset prices followed by yet another QE round, more debt and a further devaluation of paper currencies.

The QE economy —which started in 2009 and has continued through 2014 — saw the banks buying stocks, bonds, and real estate, while loaning money to Wall Street, which sparked an asset bubble. That economy is coming to a halt.

The crisis in Ukraine, pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine shooting down a passenger airliner a...

Jul 29, 2014
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Strange Times: The Unprecedented Bull Market

The S&P 500 is on pace to triple its March 2009 low of 676.53 in 2014, leaving many wondering what is driving such an unprecedented bull market.  Indeed, a widely respected figure at a major financial news network said to me earlier this month, “Even in the media, we’re left scratching our heads by a lot of what we’re witnessing right now.”  

On Thursday the SPX touched an intraday peak of 1991.39 to close at yet another new all-time high of 1987.98.  The 10-year Treasury yield had closed th...

Jul 25, 2014
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Top 10 Free Trading Resources

The following is a list of my top 10 favorite free resources on the web for investors and traders. None of these websites involve any cost, though some do offer the possibility to upgrade to a pay service. We did not include TraderPlanet, since you are already here.

1.www.TopStepTrader.com If you are intraday trader that is tempted to have CNBC on during your trading day here is an entertaining alternative. "Eddie the Broadcaster" will keep you informed with a solid mix of market news, specia...

Jul 23, 2014
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Forex Tips: When Trading Discipline Goes Too Far

“Stick to your trading plan” is what we hear said all the time and I’ve been known to say it too.  Although that may be the best thing to do, if your trading plan is ok, there’s the odd time that crops up that makes you question it.

Being a dedicated forex trader I’ve done some serious screen time.  Eyes locked furiously on the charts waiting for my setups, mesmerized by the ebb and flow of the markets.

While going about my normal trading day, there have been several instances where the radical...

Jul 22, 2014
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