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Market Commentary

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Space Travelers, Bitcoins, and Neighbors Spying On Neighbors

This morning, a reader responded to my referencing that report from San Jose California about personal drones spying on neighbors.

  • Some years ago people saw space travelers from distant planets. Now perhaps they see drones. Have you seen any valid reports, substantiated by other evidence?   

So, I checked it out and in my somewhat limited research, I did find numerous police reports, but I did not find any actual arrests for drone spying, which would be “other evidence.” What I did find, howe...

May 6, 2015
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E-Mini: Retreating Again

Yesterday

Let's recap a little. On Monday the S&P500 mini futures closed near the resistance that has been holding the market in check since the beginning of April. But the close near the top of the near-term triangle that has formed on the daily chart was not convincing. Yesterday it reversed again.

The Monday rally occurred on light volume, which indicates the Bulls were not all that enthusiastic. Absent a subsequent follow-through on the rally yesterday the buyers were going to be cauti...

May 6, 2015
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Grain Exports

Export sales for wheat on the week came in at minus 449 thousand metric tons.  Sales have been bad for months, but this should not be looked at as anything different than the week prior as wheat’s new marketing year begins June 1st.  It is common in the last month of the old marketing year to see cancelations and new shipping dates for new crop delivery.  Export sales for the new marketing year, 2015/16 were 852 thousand metric tons.  This looks like a high number but is common as the new mar...

May 6, 2015
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Gap Hunt Continues

The Nasdaq futures ended the day on Monday near the Weekly Pivot , which represents a point of equilibrium.

The rejection of higher prices on Monday, however, and the return to ground zero, filling the opening gap, the Nasdaq futures completed a bit of technical housekeeping. The pink areas on the Volume Profile chart show filled gaps.

As noted yesterday, for the gap police, we had two remaining fugitives: 4419 and 4349. On Tuesday the gap hunts quickly resumed, closing the 4419 gap by noon E...

May 6, 2015
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Facebook Calendar Spread

As an options trader, all we are trying to do is maximize the reward for the risk we take.  I don’t have a crystal ball.  I do have tools at my disposal in the form of technical and fundamental analysis.  Let’s take a look in Facebook .  Facebook has been a stock that has been hard to buy.  What do I mean by that?  Sure it’s easy to say “I want to buy FB” turn around, hit the green button and get long.  That’s not how to approach things.  You need to find a value point for entry and then be ...

May 6, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Thoughts on Liquidity

"The Federal Reserve, consistent with its responsibilities as the nation's central bank, affirmed today its readiness to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system."
 --That's the statement the Greenspan Fed used to steady the markets after the 1987 Crash.

I personally get turned off when news outlets all jump on the same topic and beat it to death. So, I am NOT going to talk about Bruce Jenner in this post. However, I am going to make a couple of points about...

May 6, 2015
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The Rise of the Ugly Duckling Set-up in a “Channelized” QE Market Environment

So far 2015 has been a difficult environment for investors as the indexes have “chopped and slopped” in a mostly sideways range since December of 2014. Each time the market has appeared ready to bust out to new highs and begin a potentially strong, new trend to the upside, it has backed down into its prior price range relatively quickly. Conversely, each time the market has looked like it is ready to split wide open on the downside it has suddenly found its feet and turned back to the upside....

May 4, 2015
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Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

 

2014 was a banner year for coffee prices as the market rallied off of Brazilian crop concerns right up through the critical “flowering” season in October. 

But as timely rains finally arrived  the market was forced to backtrack as projected crop damage ended up being much exaggerated.

This steady trend lower in prices made coffee an ideal market for call sellers for the past 6 months. The question becomes, is it still ideal for call sellers?

In our opinion, the answer to that question rema...

May 1, 2015
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Millenials – It Appears They Are Moving Out And In To Homes

Consumer and investor confidence dipped this past month. This, along with the other recent soft economic indicators, has led some analysts to lower GDP projections for 2015. So be it; let the predictions stand.

Me? I prefer to look past the month-to-month indicators. I look to indicators that are more long lasting, that are more predictive of a solid foundation for economic growth. One of those is real estate, a broad category, but because that, the far reaching fingers, the growth or non-gro...

Apr 28, 2015
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So Much For Ancient Greece and Biometrics Using The Eye

Today we go between ancient history and the future, which is now. We leave the market to its own devices, as it is again behaving as if it wants to go up. Maybe it is the tepid economic data coming out that has the market believing the Fed will remain sidelined until at least late in the year, or maybe it likes that spring is here. Whatever …

Greece is ancient history, you know Plato, the Iliad and the Odyssey, Homer, et al, but in today’s world, it appears the good folks of Greece do not wan...

Apr 27, 2015
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