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Market Commentary

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Supply Side Dominates In Corn

There were two key reports the first two days of this week.  Monday’s crop condition report and Tuesday’s U.S. Grain Stocks quarterly report. 

The News

Let’s cover the September stocks and small grains summary first. The report was viewed as mixed, but in the grand scheme of things not all that eventful. Sep 1 corn stocks were pegged at 1,236 million bushels, 55 million above expectations. September 1st bean stocks were pegged at 92 million bushels, 38 million below expectations. Wheat stocks...

Oct 1, 2014
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Trading Psychology: Complexity Theory Says More Is Different

Last week I wrote an article on why Bull Markets can be dangerous. Simply put, they often lull us into complacency and tempt us to ignore standard risk controls. Then, when volatility increases, we are not prepared for the rug to move and the walls to shake.

There’s a principle in Complexity Theory that says: More is different. It means that in complex dynamic systems, arithmetic increases in a single parameter can produce qualitative changes in the stability of a system.

For example, if y...

Oct 1, 2014
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The Nike Gap: Just Do It

On September 26, 2014 Nike, Inc. gapped up after the company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter fiscal results.  The stock gapped up from the previous day’s close of $79.75 to $87.93.  NKE has been in a strong uptrend since 2010 and keeps pushing new highs.   Since there is no negative price resistance to the left in NKE’s chart, it looks like it has a solid future.

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Volume

NKE traded over 17.5 million shares on the gap day.  Their normal average is 3.7 million which shows you the...

Oct 1, 2014
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Deflation Is Gaining Strength

U.S. dollar ETF absolute price rose to its highest level in 14 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 9 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 9/30/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting downtrend.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF absolute price...

Oct 1, 2014
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A New Market Pattern – Crazy, Right?

I am seeing a general pattern in the market as of the last ten days and it is shaped like a skier climbing a semi-steep hill then skiing down a 30-degree slope, then coming up to a ski jump, going off, landing, then shooting off a cornice virtually straight down the face, then skiing across the flat, then climbing a small but steeper hill, dropping down a short face, then a climb up, a climb down, a climb up, and a climb down, an then beginning another climb up.  I call this the “Crazy, Drunk...

Sep 30, 2014
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Featured Stories

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How To Take Advantage Of High Frequency Trader Price Action

Recognizing the High Frequency Trader HFT footprint on a stock chart, presents ways for individual traders to use the candlestick patterns created to their advantage. HFT orders are algorithms which are computer programs that are automated, and occur at speeds on the millisecond scale. Therefore traders will find their orders have been front run by the HFTs, if they try to enter after an HFT order triggers.

The HFT footprint is unique on a stock chart, and there is no other technical candlesti...

Sep 29, 2014
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Women On Wall Street

A Discussion about Optimizing Career Development on Wall Street
Hosted By NYSSA with collaboration from the MTA’s Women in Technical Analysis Group.



Billed as a discussion about challenges faced by women on Wall Street, the Career Chat at NYSSA on September 3, 2014, was a well attended event which focused on keys to help women on Wall Street propel their careers forward.  The speakers at the event were the charismatic and energetic Carla Harris of Morgan Stanley and the insightful Linda Descano...

Sep 25, 2014
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The Euro Will Reach Parity With The U.S. Dollar In 2-3 Years: Stay Short

In the last six months, the Euro declined by 5% against the U.S. dollar as it became apparent that the European Central Bank has fallen far behind the U.S. Federal Reserve in its interest rate policymaking cycle.

While the Fed is set to end its “quantitative easing” policy of asset purchases this year and to raise interest rates by next year , the ECB is just beginning to formulate a quantitative easing policy of its own. There is also no indication that the ECB will raise its main refinanc...

Sep 24, 2014
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America's Role In the Middle East: Friends and Foes

The Professional Traders Opinion
Who’s on First?

Oddly enough, an ascribed Arabic proverb, dating to the 4th century BC, suggests “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”   

There is now a 21st century edited version of that proverb; once again emanating from the land of Arabia but this time will need Aristotle to discern the logic; it goes something like this: “the enemy of my enemy is only my friend until my enemy is overthrown by America, a new government is transitioned and then my enemy of my...

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A Guide To Alibaba’s (BABA) Record-Setting IPO

Over the past month, the IPO market hasn’t provided traders and investors with many compelling opportunities as activity has dried up. With Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba lined up to go public on September 19, the IPO market will soon come to life in dramatic fashion.

Demand has been so strong that its expected price range has been bumped higher to $66-$68 from the original expectation of $60-$66.  With BABA offering 320.1 million ADS, its projected proceeds of over $24.6 billion put it o...

Sep 17, 2014
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