Warning: array_merge(): Argument #1 is not an array in /var/www/www.sfomag.com/helper.php on line 199 Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /var/www/www.sfomag.com/helper.php on line 200 SFO

Market Commentary

More Market Commentary
banner_image

This Is A Great Environment For Stock Picking

It always strikes me with curiosity that when markets are at a crossroads we start reaching for expert opinions.  We hate uncertainty, which creates doubt and usually the wrong decision.  For so many of us being long the market has been the right decision, yet the game has to turn at some point, right?  And who wants to be left holding the bag when everyone else has cleaned house.  How do we get out of the way, and when will we know it?

That, of course is a market timing bet - and as a stock ...

May 26, 2015
Read More
banner_image

Let’s Stay At The Top Of The Food, Water, And Energy Chains

Humans are great – when things get rough, the smart get going. We have risen to the top of the food chain because we can think our way out of problems. Sure, it often takes a crisis to get the smart going, but once they do get a thinkin’, the problems we face get smaller.

  • Google has developed software that can run on low-power devices and give them the ability to communicate with other connected devices nearby.

The above might seem obvious and inconsequential in this day of wireless everythin...

May 22, 2015
Read More
banner_image

Nasdaq Poised To Play Catch Up

After some late afternoon profit-taking on Wednesday, the stage was set for a nasty megaphone pattern on the 60 min NQ chart, which would resolve down at the Weekly Pivot .

The only thing standing in the way was support from a High Volume Node at 4489 On Thursday, the opening 30 minute bar tested this critical area and it held. That was an all-clear signal for the resumption of the uptrend, as indicated by the blue dashed channel.

Reid_5-22-2015_NQ.png

  

This suggests that the Nasdaq will now play catch-up with...

May 22, 2015
Read More
banner_image

E-Mini Futures: Lack Of Volume Worrisome

The S&P 500 mini-futures made a retracement move in overnight trading early Thursday morning, but stopped at the 2119 resistance area, and recovered during the day session to return to the previous day-time high at 2132. It fell back a little to close at 2128, about six points above the previous close, on very light volume.

We are still worried about the lack of volume in this rally, but the price action yesterday was a bit reassuring. In particular the ability to stay above the previous bre...

May 22, 2015
Read More
banner_image

Tick Tock: Three Day Holiday Means Sell Premium

As a regular options premium seller, I love the three day holiday. 

We have one coming up this weekend for Memorial Day, and even though volatility is low the clock is my friend.  You see, time decay will work in my favor as a seller; I will receive an extra day of no trading.  

Now, you may be thinking prices are already reflecting this, and by the option pricing models the answer is yes.  Yet, as markets trend towards a long weekend we have consistently found volatility to also trend.  It's...

May 22, 2015
Read More

Featured Stories

More Featured Stories
banner_image

Chart Warns S&P 500 Could Be Near Short-Term Top

The S&P 500 had a pretty interesting week in the run-up to the Memorial Day holiday. It made a new all-time high at 2134.72, and it closed Friday at 2126.06, the first time it has managed to close above the high set in April. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that the range for the week was extremely narrow — roughly 14 points, which is hardly a decent range for a single day — the momentum was very weak, and the volume was very low, as it has been for most of this month.

We got up there,...

May 26, 2015
Read More
banner_image

US Labor Market Coming To A Boil

Despite a recent host of weak and weaker than expected economic data the employment picture remains robust. Aside from one month of poor non-farm payrolls data the sector remains strong with positive expectations into the future. One proof of that is the rebound in NFP we saw for April. The number jumped back above 200,000 and into the range commonly agreed to represent health, if not strength, in job creation. Further evidence can be found in the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Index of Labo...

May 21, 2015
Read More
banner_image

Wheat Reality

Last Thursday’s weekly export sales report for wheat showed 115 thousand metric tons. That was old crop numbers with new crop numbers coming in at 142 thousand.  Clearly demand is not a driving force and for months hasn’t been in wheat.  Demand looks to remain weak until the new crop in the field shows its strength.  The Monday’s crop condition report showed 45% of the crop in good to excellent condition. We need over 60% good to excellent condition to make us a primary port of origin for hig...

May 20, 2015
Read More
banner_image

5000 Years of Data

Systematic futures traders are invariably plagued by the small set of available daily data upon which to develop and test strategies. The last data revolution was the introduction of 24 hour electronic contracts starting in 2000.  Only a few symbols go back that far and many of them start much later.   Although some futures have a longer history, it is not helpful to back-test prior to 2000 because markets changed radically with the introduction of electronic futures. Consequently systematic ...

May 13, 2015
Read More
banner_image

Alcoa (AA) – A Leading Industrial Play on the Growing Global Aerospace and Automotive Sectors

AA, the largest aluminum producer in the U.S., returned nearly 50% in 2014, as the combination of rising aluminum prices , efficiency gains, and a 7% growth in global aluminum demand drove AA’s 2014 net income to $268 million, its highest calendar-year profit since 2011. For the U.S. aluminum industry as a whole—taking into account the three largest U.S. aluminum companies, i.e. Alcoa , Century Aluminum , and Kaiser Aluminum as a proxy—total 2014 net income was $452 million. This was also th...

May 13, 2015
Read More