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Market Commentary

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ESM5: If This Was Supposed To Be A Recovery …

Yesterday

The SP500 mini futures sold off sharply in overnight trading before yesterday's open , but the 135-day moving average line, which has supported the futures for about four months now, held again, and provided a little bounce after the regular session opened.

During regular trading hours, the ES made a strong push up and traded in positive territory for a while. But, by the end of the day, it dropped back below the previous close. The futures closed at 2048.50, about five points belo...

Mar 27, 2015
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Date with Destiny

A capitulatory opening gap down on Thursday was repaired after our initial 4285 target was attained .

The “trick” with using Volume Profile effectively is to experiment with look-back periods in order to get a semi-Gaussian distribution. That means a volume distribution with a clear central peak and “shoulders” on either side. The 90-day look back in the NQ does the trick.

As mentioned yesterday, the 4210 area, which is the Volume Profile Point of Control for this profile, also coincides wit...

Mar 27, 2015
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Profits Are, Ultimately, The Only Sane Consideration

This is March, right? Okay, then, I get it. This is March Madness and this, then, is the state of the market these days. I only describe it this way because yesterday was such a surprise. I expected the market would be done, but almost three hundred on the Dow is a bit mad, given the current state of things in the market world.   

  • The S&P 500 has gone 26 sessions without 2 up days in a row. That's the longest streak since 2001.

If one were to believe in replicating historical cycles, one woul...

Mar 26, 2015
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Survive, Advance, and Play The Canadian Dollar

If you are a trader, you need volatility in the markets to reach your goals. The toughest market to trade is one that sits in a tight range, and stays there without much movement in either direction.  A stagnant market can be taxing on one’s mind, and if you are participant, it can frustrate you and grind on you emotionally as well. When we are frustrated and make emotional decisions, they usually don’t work out well.

On the flipside, a highly volatile market can be challenging as well. While...

Mar 26, 2015
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ESM5: Slip Slidin' Away

Yesterday

The S&P 500 mini-futures had a strong down day yesterday and settled at the bottom of the daily range again, the third day this week that it has failed to show a late-afternoon rally. The futures closed at 2053.75, 31 points below the previous close, on heavier volume.

The ES moved  moved step-by-step to test each of the breakout points established by last week's FOMC rally: 2078-76.50, 2064.50-66.50 and 2057.50-59.50. Those levels slowed the selling pressure, but only temporarily...

Mar 26, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Over the last 12 months, Macau casino gaming stocks are down by an average of 50% as the world’s largest casino-gaming market experienced an unprecedented decline in gross gaming revenues . GGR in Macau experienced its first yearly decline since data became publicly available in 2002, falling by 2.6% last year to $44 billion as a result of the Chinese government’s anti-graft movement, Macau’s hotel room constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy.

The first two months of 2015 was more of the s...

Mar 25, 2015
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Retirement: How QE Ate Your Pension

The last time I started ranting about the evils of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing program it was about how the Fed was pushing 50- and 60-year-olds out of the workforce and into “retirement” by creating a business environment that makes it more profitable to manipulate a company's finances than to actually make stuff and sell it.

Now here's the rest of the story: the same process that is pushing you or someone you know out of a job is going to make it unlikely you will ever get en...

Mar 24, 2015
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Futures Trading $1K A Day: Mathematical Modeling to Harness Pullback

$1K A Day: Feasible or Fictitious?

Retail traders are hypnotically attracted to spectacular profits. Futures trading room operators know this and use performance to galvanize our interest: “89.9% win rate 5 years in a row”; “$18,367.94 in 21 days”; “46,572.79 in less than a month”; “$70,183.54 in 3.5 months,” or “$1,900,336.82”. Jon Burras states we believe that math is an objective reality and a number stands for a very specific and quantifiable amount. To many, a number is as absolute as a...

Mar 24, 2015
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What You Should Know About Binary Options

“Binary Options.” There, I've said it. Binary Options are the red-headed-step-child of the investing world and for good reason. While at heart, they are a viable means of market speculation, in practice, they are often nothing more than a smokescreen for scam artists. This is primarily because they, as a vehicle for speculation, came to life on the Internet in the gray areas between countries, jurisdictions, and regulatory bodies. What you need to know is that not all binary options are the s...

Mar 23, 2015
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Hot Cocoa May Be Cooling Off

Fundamentals point to a Call Selling Opportunity in a “Back Page” Market

Last week’s strong US Employment report gave the proverbial “all clear” to the US economy and stoked speculation that interest rates are destined to increase as early as this summer. This had added extra fuel to the ongoing rally in the US Dollar. The continuing strength in the dollar has been a macro force weighing on prices of a variety of commodities in recent months. 

Cocoa has been one market to buck that trend as ...

Mar 17, 2015
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