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Market Commentary

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Crude Oil Continues To Drill Downward

Last week’s forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st was a perfect hit.  As of last Friday, equities have fallen 261 points since last Monday’s high.

Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.

If 30.00 is broken again, my price forecasting model generates a target of 22.90. However, a break out above the 34-dma would be bullish and a close above...

Feb 7, 2016
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Are Stocks On The Verge Of More Panic Selling?

Another week and another seven days of conflicting market information. While the domestic unemployment picture lends credence to the Fed’s actions, global economic slack leaves the world second guessing the Fed’s decision. The end result has led to bond spreads foreshadowing a global economic slowdown while the equity markets tank. We’ve written before that the powers that be will do everything they can to keep the global economy from coming off the rails. While we may make solid cases for ju...

Feb 7, 2016
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Stock Market Distribution Continues

We started a new month this past week, but it was like Deja Vu all over again.  The Groundhog declared an early spring on Tuesday, a change in weather.  But regarding markets, you could have fooled me.  It was the same action we have seen for weeks on end, and it doesn't seem to be letting up.  The vicious selling last week was magnified on Friday after a jobs report that seemed indicate the Fed may be trapped.  I'm not so sure about that, but the market speaks louder than my opinion. The sto...

Feb 7, 2016
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ETF Watch: Biotech On The Bid (IBB)

About 3 weeks ago I wrote an article for Trader Planet entitled: Bye Bye Biotech, with an immediate target for the main Biotech ETF of $250 and a 12-18 month target of $175 and then $150.

This week IBB hit my first target and has paused at its Volume Profile Point of Control at $260. Interestingly the Nasdaq itself is also at its VPPOC . This is probably not a coincidence, since much of the Nasdaq’s bull market momentum was generated by biotech.

Although the biotech ETF has a market cap of...

Feb 5, 2016
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Traders: Brace Yourself For Sustained Volatility

To what extent will volatility continue in to February? Market participants remain uncertain.  Numerous indicators point to some level of sustained volatility including price fluctuations in oil, US dollar and other major currencies, macro-economic gauges, and the ever present political climate leading up to the presidential election in the US.

Traders and active investors have certainly had their share of excitement in the first month of the New Year.  2016 has certainly provided a tremendou...

Feb 5, 2016
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Featured Stories

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Will Oil Prices Rise or Fall? | A 27 Year History on the Charts Tells the Story

Bloomberg says oil  will go as low as $10.00 a barrel whereas oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens says we could be headed for higher oil prices; no matter how you slice it, both of these sources could be right.   The market is going to do what the market is going to do, but there are solid reasons for oil prices to rise and fall, the past 3 decades has shown us this without a doubt.  There’s been a lot of talk from news sources and in the media that oil may be headed for $10.00 a barrel but some expe...

Feb 1, 2016
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Trading Tactics: How to Deal With a Slump

Self-realization is a good place to start in breaking a trading slump.  I know it seems obvious that when you're in a slump and trading poorly your results and account balance will reflect it.  Streaks work both ways of course, and when we are winning it is just as notable as when we are losing.  Understanding what is happening to you is awareness that may help you change some habits, which may also change your fortunes. 

When in a slump I will often take a break from trading, a 'timeout'.  ...

Jan 31, 2016
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Stock Market Crash: Is The Dow Headed For A 2008 Repeat?

Do not wait for ideal circumstances nor for the best opportunities; they will never come.
Anonymous

 

We could not help ourselves and put the word stock market crash in the title because every Tom, Dick and Harry is now chanting this tune.  Take a look at some of the recent headlines:

Is the stock market headed for a repeat of 2008?, On marketwatch.com

A stock-market crash of 50%+ would not be a surprise — or the worst-case scenario on Yahoo Finance

Stock Market Crash 2016: This Is The Worst ...

Jan 28, 2016
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Do You Know When the News is Wrong And Can You Trade It?

Do you trade the news?  Some technical traders ignore the news, but understanding when it gets one-sided can offer extraordinary trading, especially for those who know how to read the markets. 

A One-Sided Market

Early last Wednesday morning, January 20th, news outlets like CNN were talking gloom and doom before the US markets opened.  The European and Asian markets were selling down hard, they said.  The markets were in dire shape.  They even had a name for the coming trading day: “Red Wedne...

Jan 26, 2016
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Trading Psychology: Of Rabbits And Raiders

I read an interesting article today on the AAII website by Lee Freeman-Shor, a seasoned portfolio manager based in the U.K. who has a keen interest in the psychology of investing. We share a fascination with the ways that trader personality affects bottom-line results.

To create a diversified money management approach, he hires up to a dozen managers and has carefully studied their trading behavior. He begins the article by making one salient point: the data show that most of the investing id...

Jan 21, 2016
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