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Market Commentary

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Copper – A Breakout To The Downside?

We’ve been watching the copper market closely over the last few months because the commercial copper traders had built up a record long position heading into January. The general consensus was clear that commercial long hedgers were taking advantage of depressed prices to load up raw materials in the expectation of a big construction season.

However, even before the Federal Reserve Board’s recent expression about growth concerns, it was clear that the commercial traders had noted the error of...

Mar 30, 2015
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Speed Zone Ahead

The precipitous decline in the NQ on Wednesday created a speed zone that the market is now entering from below. The principle of the speed zone is simple – a market that falls quickly can rise just as quickly. This is especially true in futures markets where mean reversion is the primary trader orientation.   

Because the 4210 area , which is the Volume Profile Point of Control for this 120 day profile, also coincides with an unfilled gap in the NQ that’s my downside target.

That said, as n...

Mar 30, 2015
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SPX: Marking Time …

Last week

The S&P 500 cash index closed at 2061.02 on Friday, down 47 points for a net weekly loss of 2.23%. That's the loss from close to close, but the SPX also moved from a high at 2114 to a low at 2045, a decline of 69 points, before we saw a little bounce on Friday .

In effect, the market gave back almost all the gain it made on the surge from the Fed's dovish statements around the Open Market Committee report. The large-cap index is now up three points for the year to date. So far in 2...

Mar 30, 2015
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US Dollar – Correction Behind Us?

With no break of the 34-dma, and a cycle low due this week, it is beginning to look like the bulk of the expected correction is behind us and DXY will soon begin what is expected to be the last leg of its rally prior to this September.

April looks bullish for the dollar with short-term cycles pointing to highs near both Apr. 15 and Apr. 30.

The price targetof 102.00 is a minimum target derived from the six-year triangle, but my price-forecasting model generates a target of 103.50

The Coppoc...

Mar 29, 2015
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Analyzing Oil Is Crazy Making

Tracking market opinion can make you crazy. Analysts are all over the board on any given day. Take the hot topic of our time – oil – for example. Pat Flynn is a new contributor to TraderPlanet and he has an interesting take on how oil got here and where it is going. Check out Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

His thorough look at oil and the correlation to the US dollar does give one a reason to pause, yet, one also has to wonder if oil has not turned into something truly unpredi...

Mar 27, 2015
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Featured Stories

More Featured Stories

Avoid the Wash & Rinse Cycle

I’ve been contributing a daily review and forecast for the S&P or Nasdaq futures for over a month because this is the market I personally trade. However, individuals coming to disintermediated, zero-sum markets such as futures from other “normal” markets such as equities, may not be aware of the critical differences.

Asset markets such as stocks serve institutions and the general public. About 50% of households are invested in the stock market, whereas futures markets have traditionally serve...

Mar 30, 2015
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The Importance Of Follow Through -- Be Patient

Many of us are trained to look for tops and bottoms and game the markets accordingly.  For the most part, this is the way our brains work; yet, intuitively speaking, that is just the wrong approach.  Finding tops and bottoms is generally a loser's game, but following through after seeing a top/bottom take place can be the most lucrative profit opportunity. 

Our minds think in terms of finding the best value, letting prices fall to levels that we are willing to accept.  Wal-Mart is a great exa...

Mar 30, 2015
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Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

Oil prices have been under pressure as the dollar soars. For many, they believe that the strength in the dollar is a major reason why oil will not be able to rally. Yet the truth is that while in recent years, the dollar-oil inverse correlation has been very tight, throughout history that has not always been the case. In fact, in the oil market, as well as other commodities, we may be at the verge of a total breakdown of what has been considered to be an almost dogmatic truth - which is as th...

Mar 27, 2015
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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Over the last 12 months, Macau casino gaming stocks are down by an average of 50% as the world’s largest casino-gaming market experienced an unprecedented decline in gross gaming revenues . GGR in Macau experienced its first yearly decline since data became publicly available in 2002, falling by 2.6% last year to $44 billion as a result of the Chinese government’s anti-graft movement, Macau’s hotel room constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy.

The first two months of 2015 was more of the s...

Mar 25, 2015
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Retirement: How QE Ate Your Pension

The last time I started ranting about the evils of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing program it was about how the Fed was pushing 50- and 60-year-olds out of the workforce and into “retirement” by creating a business environment that makes it more profitable to manipulate a company's finances than to actually make stuff and sell it.

Now here's the rest of the story: the same process that is pushing you or someone you know out of a job is going to make it unlikely you will ever get en...

Mar 24, 2015
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