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Market Commentary

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Is Monsanto Lost In The Weeds?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column .

Six big firms dominate the agricultural supply business today, having bought up over 200 smaller companies and their intellectual property over the past 25 years or so. Monsanto, the world’s largest seed supplier, and BASF both reportedly tried to buy rival Syngenta. Though no deals went through, it looks like the industry is in for another round of consolidation. One of Monsanto’s problems is that weeds are becomi...

Sep 2, 2015
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Look Out! The VIX Spells Trouble

The sharp sell-off in the stock indices and the sharp spike in VIX spells trouble ahead.

This sell-off in the SPX accompanied by a spike in the VIX has come after a lengthy period of low VIX readings just like in late 2007.  In that instance, the initial spikes in the VIX above 24 were an early warning to the price damage that was to follow.

Looking at the chart below, I don’t believe the recent decline is just another ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.  I have the view that the market has transition...

Sep 2, 2015
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It’s China, Not The Employment Data

At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual. 

 

-Stanley Fischer, from his Jackson Hole speech.

The World Series!  A few times I have been around non-Americans who sort of chuckle at that phrase, because it has nothing to do with the world, it’s purely American.  In a sense, the US Federal Reserve embodies that egocentric mindset.  Fed officials have said repeatedly that they want ...

Sep 1, 2015
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Play Both Sides Of The Gold Market With A Strangle

Most of Gold’s losses from last week came on the heels of wild gyrations in the stock market last Monday and Tuesday which at one point had the Dow down over 1000 points in trading on Monday before global bourses recovered later in the week. The Gold market was also assessing comments on policy normalization from Fed officials attending the Aug. 27-29 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Two top Federal Reserve officials who have pressed for interest rate increases said on Friday that a spate of ...

Sep 1, 2015
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Could Big Economic Data Jolt Stocks This Week?

The bounce from last week’s awesome destruction in the S&P500 mini-futures stalled Monday at the 10-day moving average line, the first of the resistance levels we identified in our weekend report. The futures closed at 1969.25, down 20.50 points for the day and 129.25 points for the month, the biggest monthly loss in five years.

Fear of slow growth in China continues to haunt many investors, although there should not be much market news out of China this week. The Chinese are celebrating the...

Sep 1, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Wealth Building 101: Gold To Soar In Looming Global Crisis

In an August 22, 2015 interview, Egon von Greyerz, founder and Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and GoldSwitzerland predicted “the most incredible bull market” in precious metals in the coming months.

 

With stock markets around the world apparently collapsing and the gold market rallying, von Greyerz said, “The perfect storm has now started. . .and this storm will turn into a hurricane probably in the next two months.”

 

Greyerz expects to see all stock markets down at leas...

Aug 28, 2015
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Gold Will Soar: Driven By Largest Currency War Ever Seen

 

Is The Gold Bull Down For The Count?

The person who lives by hope will die by despair.
Italian Proverb

Over the years we have frequently stated that every that every major bull market will experience at least one back breaking correction. Usually the correction culminates with a 50% pullback from the highs. In the case of Gold, this would equate to a pullback to $960.  The precious metal’s sector had a splendid lope that began in 2003 and ended with spectacular run in 2011.  To think that th...

Aug 27, 2015
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Trade The Open: 4 Charts Show You How

Conventional wisdom tells us to avoid trading in the first few minutes that a market opens. The action is often volatile and seemingly unpredictable. May people wait for the first 15 minutes to pass to let the market “show its hand”.

In this article, we are going to discuss an opportunity that occurs very close to the open; in some cases, giving a trade entry in the first minute.  This opportunity is one that you will be able to see quite clearly for yourself, if you take time over the coming...

Aug 25, 2015
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3 Steps To Improve Your Trading Profits

In this case study, Nathan overcame a common tendency and turned his trading around

Nathan’s trading results fell short of his expectations.  Often, his first trades of the morning ended in losses, and this soured him for the rest of the day.  Nathan knew the problem had to be mental, but wasn’t sure where to start.  

There are many reasons traders lose money.  How we think about those reasons and what we do about it can make all the difference. 

Nathan’s Thinking Problem

Nathan was blaming t...

Aug 25, 2015
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How Do You Know When To Sell?

Berkeley professor Terrance Odean points out that decisions to sell are not made in the same way as decisions to buy. As the market appears to be in a swoon, let’s explore this timely topic a bit further.  

It’s relatively easy to manage winning trades. There is little stress and plenty of self-congratulation. Indeed, studies show that investors and traders quickly take credit for trades that have positive outcomes. Whatever stress one might feel typically comes from the fear of giving back g...

Aug 20, 2015
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