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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

The Changing Mindset of Investors and Traders

One thing is for sure, the mood and temperament among investors and traders changes like the direction of the wind.  But leaning to hard one way can be very damaging to your wealth and your mind.  Certainly the unknowns out there are the challenges we have to either dodge or just embrace.  If you have a long term horizon then the bumps in the road are just great opportunities, and those have been great spots to add positions.  That has always been the ritual of the past - buy the dips and jus...

Jan 24, 2015
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Is The Market Going Back To Normal?

For the first time in some time, I feel the market is behaving normally. I am not sure why I feel this way, but somehow the market action today feels right. I suspect it is the VIX going down, along with the Dow , while the Russell 2000 is going up. That just feels right, as if it is the way to go now after all of the recent volatility.

The US dollar going up and remaining on the strong side is slightly disconcerting, but that is tempered by the slight drop in the price of gold, as far as the...

Jan 23, 2015
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Remove Uncertainty and the Fear Goes Away

If there is one thing markets hate it is uncertainty.  Yet, we find ourselves constantly in a vacuum of the unknown, and with the news flow being so quick these days , well there is just no time to take a breath. 

So far in 2015, we’ve seen a big rise in volatility across the VIX term structure as the market is pricing in more uncertainty.  What is this unknown?  Clearly over the last couple of years, a very generous Fed policy has created a strong appetite for risk assets.   Even with the F...

Jan 23, 2015
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Don’t Be Fooled By This Strength In GOOG

With Google's earnings release date just around the corner , I thought I'd take a close look at the daily and weekly charts in hopes of offering a useful technical interpretation of the price action on both the intermediate and short-term time frames. 

The daily chart below sports a bullish BAT harmonic pattern that confirmed on two separate occasions by dropping below black point B . However, when it comes to trading, things are never quite this straightforward. Within this massive formatio...

Jan 23, 2015
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S&P Futures Market Review: Knocking on the Ceiling

On Thursday, the S&P 500 futures followed through on the anticipated move up to the 2051-2061 zone.  The key level now is 2061. That level is determined by the small green peak on the volume profile seen on the left side of the chart below.

The 2061 level has been in place for several months. It’s an area where we can expect selling to occur.

This profile encompasses more than a year of transactions, so it provides an objective context for understanding support and resistance. A move above 20...

Jan 23, 2015
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Look To Platinum And The PGM in 2015

Given a growing global demand for platinum, palladium, and rhodium, three of the six metals in the platinum metals group , and the increasing cost to mine platinum, we are focusing our efforts to accumulate platinum over the course of the year. PGM, specifically platinum, is an excellent store of value and it performs well as an inflation hedge.  One could argue that platinum – and the other meals in the PGM - are a better long term hedge than gold, as there are a number of industrial uses fo...

Jan 23, 2015
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Taking A Peek Inside (the) Box

The volatility roiling the broader markets has, at least thus far, kept a lid on the IPO market in 2015. To date, just two companies have braved the elements with County Bancorp and Patriot National going public on January 16.

This week, however, the IPO market will once again find itself in the spotlight as a well-known tech company makes its long-awaited debut in the public markets. Specifically, on January 22, Box, Inc. – a provider of cloud-based storage and file sharing services – is ...

Jan 22, 2015
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Expect Economic Boom In 2015

You should expect a US economic boom in 2015. All the signs are pointing to it. The economic trends are up, led by a positive outlook and forward momentum for US labor. All together, these things add up to an economy that, by many economist accounts, is growing at a pace faster than anticipated. There has been a recent slump in activity, but this is nothing more than a seasonally expected lull occurring in tandem with the end of the year and the post-holiday period.

New data is already pointi...

Jan 21, 2015
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Time Segmented Volume - The Ideal Oscillator For Automated Markets

The modern market structure employs order types that are automated, which creates different patterns on charts. This requires a different type of oscillator for the best technical analysis.

Although most technical traders are familiar with and use price and time oscillators, few use volume oscillators. Volume oscillators are uniquely different than price oscillators. Instead of signaling overbought or oversold price action, the volume oscillator provides far more valuable information about wh...

Jan 21, 2015
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How To Trade Stocks Without Breaking A Sweat

When I was working in the markets full time, I found trading an enjoyable but immensely stressful experience. Back then, I was a day trader and invariably getting caught up in every market turn.

I felt a strange mixture of feelings back then. Some days there was so much going on I could barely sleep. Yet when the weekend came, all I wanted was for Monday to come around again so that the markets would re-open.

Fortunately for my health, as well as my stress levels, I don’t trade that way anymo...

Jan 20, 2015
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