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Market Commentary

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This Is Real – It Could Go Either Way

What is real? The question recalls youthful conversations, dialectics perhaps, in which the very nature our existence was debated. Clearly, the market dialectics is real, meaning on any given day one can find contrary opinion supported heartily by whatever analysis is used.

“My data says the market will go up; no, my data says the market will go down”. One or the other will be correct, which suggests, again, predicting the market is a 50-50 proposition for the most part. That is also real.

He...

Apr 24, 2015
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ESM5: At Last! The Long-Awaited Break Out … Maybe

Yesterday

The S&P 500 mini-futures repeated Wednesday's pattern yesterday, but it went a little further and made a more significant move.

The minis have been fooling around below the 2103-2105 level, stymied by the resistance in that area every time they tried to move higher. Yesterday , they finally gathered enough strength to move past the resistance and make a significant new high for April. The ESM5 got as high as 2114.50 on the day – thereby filling a gap that has remained open since Ma...

Apr 23, 2015
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Resistance Becomes Support

Volume Profile gives us information on key levels of support and resistance . Although the High Volume Nodes and Low Volume Nodes often produce very precise reversals, S/R is best conceptualized as a zone.

For the last few days, the key zone in the NQ has been centered around 4442. On Wednesday, a “scouting party” briefly probed above it, but a 40-point rejection reaction ensued.

This apparent failure can get traders bearish, but as noted yesterday, the “failure” can set up a better breakout ...

Apr 23, 2015
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Sell in May And Go Away -- Not So Fast

Anecdotes are great fun for the media and sometimes they do come true, but are they something we should follow closely?  The calendar is full of them, such as the January effect,  the Summer Rally, “Bears have Thanksgiving, Bulls have Christmas”, the Santa Claus Rally, and the one coming up next week, telling us to get out for the summer,

Many of these did the opposite of what they were supposed to do in 2014 – who do we blame for a failure of the Santa Claus Rally?  Santa Claus? .

Ironically...

Apr 23, 2015
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Things Are Interesting Indeed …

First things first, and then I have two things to talk about. I am going out on a limb here, but it seems the market is back to that place where it wants to go up. Once again, we are that place where new record highs are happening, or they are about to happen, such as in the SPX, the RUT, and the NDX. The $DJI is just about 170 points away. Just saying …

Now, I am not an alarmist by any stretch of the word, but I am also not stupid. Just like almost everyone else, I got socked hard back in 20...

Apr 23, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Mastering the Emotions of Trading:Harnessing Emotion and Thinking for Highly Effective Trading

“Trade what you see, not what you feel.”

This axiom of trading seems so right, it is undeniable that all traders need to strive to achieve it.  The only problem with this oft quoted remark is what you see is influenced by what you are feeling – no exceptions.  If only traders could see the facts clearly without feeling, then they would be freed from the tyranny of emotional reasoning.  Then trading would be easy.  But nothing could be further from the truth.

The truth is all thinking is emot...

Apr 24, 2015
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Worry No Worry – Earnings Growth Will Prevail

The market is, admittedly, on shaky footing right now. Economic data is not quite as strong as we would like to see, the FOMC and their rate hike is just around the corner, and 1st quarter earnings growth is not expected to be good.

I could go on and on about how the economic trends are still pointing to growth, or about how the FOMC rate hike has been expected for so long it has no choice but to be factored into current market values, but I won't. When you boil away all the day-to-day infor...

Apr 21, 2015
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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits

One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles.

This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters.

Using the wrong instrument or t...

Apr 20, 2015
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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading.

It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp:

When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader.

If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely, certainly d...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy , a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public.

Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy , is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range.

The IPO features prominent underwriters, with Goldm...

Apr 15, 2015
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