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Market Commentary

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Someone Is Urgently Betting On Oil Going Back Up

“Urgent.” The word when read or said elicits a feeling, a visceral sensibility. Funny thing, though, when I read or lead with it relative to the market, it lacks meaning. The market is anything but urgent.

The Dow and the S&P 500 are not moving, the VIX is hanging around 13.5, gold is flat , and the US dollar is moving a little here and there, but fairly resident in the low-to-mid 90 zone. The only thing around the market that is even trying to show urgency is Brent crude.  

  • Crude oil futures...
Feb 27, 2015
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A Options Play On The Loonie

The Canadian dollar is often viewed as a commodity currency. The term refers to the view that a country’s currency is tied heavily to the commodities and natural resources it produces and exports. In the case of Canada, the Loonie often trends with crude oil.

Since the beginning of the year, the Loonie has traded from just shy of 86.00 to a low of 78.49. This move has been helped and supported as crude oil has continued to slide down over the same time frame. A surprise interest rate cut by ...

Feb 27, 2015
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Market Review and Forecast: Correction Averted

I expected a continuation of the correction in Apple on Thursday and at the open it dropped quickly toward $126, taking the Nasdaq Futures down to 4431. However, before reaching its gap, AAPL stabilized and reversed without doing much damage.

The head fake lower sets up an immediate rally in the NQ to 4525-4530.

The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 Futures over the last 120 days. The High Volume Node at 4443 is now support for that move. The 4525-4530 target is...

Feb 27, 2015
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ESH5: Right On Time, As Usual.

Yesterday

On Thursday the S&P500 min-futures made one of those moves that just scream manipulation. The large cap index was working its way lower toward the 2100 support level, coinciding with a decline in oil that saw crude down to $47 a barrel for time, and the dollar dramatically higher, with the Euro trading at 112 U.S. cents,

And then, at precisely 3:00 pm., it all turned around. Everywhere. AAPL, the Russell 2000 small cap index, the NASDAQ, the Dow and the ESH5 all tuned on a dime sim...

Feb 27, 2015
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There Is The Ideal, And Then There Is Reality

As one writer on TraderPlanet said, “Message For The Market – Slow and Steady.” The point is clear – until we have something extraordinary, the market will chew forty times, swallow slowly, and digest the daily stream of easy news. The next phase of the market is all about central bank policies around the globe.

  • Global equities set a new record high and bond yields sank to fresh lows on Thursday as investors positioned for an extended era of cheap money ahead of the European Central Bank's lo...
Feb 26, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another.

Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act , those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it.

But in 2014, President Barack Ob...

Feb 24, 2015
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Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals.  Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event.  The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart.  Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating.

The erratic behavior in pr...

Feb 23, 2015
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A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

The European Central Bank recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term.

The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe does not...

Feb 23, 2015
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How Hidden Flaws in Your Decision-Making Affect Your Trading

Too many traders, trading psychology means dealing with negative emotions like fear and greed.  We all know that negative emotions can cause trading difficulties.  However, many of us don’t know that the way we think can cause big problems, too.  We can be blind-sided by our thinking and decision making—especially when we use our normal, everyday problem-solving approaches in trading.  These are traders’ mental blind spots, and they crop up in every trader’s trading.  The irony is we usually ...

Feb 20, 2015
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The Life-Cycles of Stocks Part 1: Tesla Motors

In many ways, stocks are like people. They each have their own “life-cycle” of birth, growth, maturity, and eventually death.” What sets stocks apart from humans, however, is that some of the best companies are able to have several life-cycles, as they continually re-invent themselves by developing new, innovative products that in turn drive a new sales cycle and, hence, a new price cycle in the shares of their respective stocks. There are certain common characteristics of “sentiment” that dr...

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