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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

A View Never Seen Before

Here we are, right smack in the middle of the week and the market is holding steady at the higher altitude. True, the air is thin, but the footsteps are certain to avoid a serious fall. Even Poroshenko and Putin seem to be stepping boldly toward a higher place.

  • Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko promised after late-night negotiations with Russia's Vladimir Putin to work on an urgent ceasefire plan to defuse the separatist conflict in the east of his former Soviet republic.

Geopolitics has t...

Aug 27, 2014
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October ICE Sugar Futures: Trading Idea August 27, 2014

October ICE Sugar Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

 See on the daily bar chart for October ICE sugar futures that prices are in a steep downtrend and this week hit a contract low. The bears are in solid near-term technical command to suggest still more downside price pressure to come. A move below chart support at this week’s low of 15.30 cents would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 14.00 cents, or below. Technical resistance, for which t...

Aug 27, 2014
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Psychology: The Five Trader Personality Types, Which One Are You?

I’ve learned from over a dozen years as a coach to top traders that traders, like criminals, can be profiled   In fact, just 5 Trader Personality Types encompass all the personality variations I’ve ever encountered, if one includes hybrids. Over the last 5 weeks I’ve presented these Five Types to Trader Planet readers. They correspond to the acronym AWARE.TM

‘A’ stands for Agrarian

You may not realize it, but farmers were the first traders and they still dominate the futures market in Chicag...

Aug 27, 2014
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Stock Play: JC Penney Breaks Out To The Upside

JCP has been in a downtrend for all of 2012 going from $43.00 to $5.00.

Gap Review

On February 27, JCP gapped up and broke the downtrend line that it established since 2012.  The gap up put the stock on a long watch because the downtrend was broken.  This action forced out any short players from the entire move down since 2012.  Since then JCP has based in sideways action from $7.00 to $10.00.  On August 25, 2014 JCP cleared over $10.30 which was a longer term resistance area.  I am a buyer ...

Aug 27, 2014
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Gold Trade: Position For A Breakout From The Wedge

There are reasons on both sides of the bull and bear aisle to fuel the gold market's future longer term direction.

The battle currently waged by individual speculators and funds alike have gold trading between the upper and lower trendlines, seen on Figure 1 below.






LuskAug27.JPG

Last Thursday’s breakdown to $1273.4 basis December futures rubbed right against the down trendline, only to see the market bounce through September option expiration. July’s rally up to $1347.5 basis December 2014 futures touc...

Aug 27, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Yellen Pulls Away the Punch Bowl, Will Rates Rise?

Let's focus in on negative interest rates and the potential for gold to increase in value.

As the Fed met in Jackson Hole over the weekend, gold was trying to hold on at the $1,300 level. Using a negative real interest rate model, gold should be around $1,400. Why? There is lots of concern about global GDP growth maintaining itself.

Let's take a look at the overall metals landscape. Some precious metals appear to be doing well. Palladium is at a 13-year high and rhodium is up 45% from the start...

Aug 25, 2014
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Use Oscillators To Determine Market Direction (Or Not)

Oscillators come in a number of different forms such as stochastic, relative strength and the commodity channel index.  Although the mathematical equations are different in each, the underlying principal by which oscillator calculations are made remains the same. 

How They Work

All oscillators compare the high and low of a given market move to its close.  This is the reason that oscillators are a bounded set of indicators. As the close of a market move approaches its high, the oscillator tra...

Aug 20, 2014
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The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited


Russia was once described by Sir Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”  Those words, spoken in 1939, eloquently described the Western sense of Moscow as inscrutable and a menacing country that plays by its own rules; perhaps they are no different now with the extraordinary exception that today’s Russia is dressed in diplomat’s pinstripes folded around a pugilist’s muscle with a checkbook of an oil baron.  

What’s more, today Russia, along with China, Brazil, I...

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Go Long: Concerns Over the Chinese Yuan’s Weakness Are Overblown

On March 6, 2013 we initiated a long recommendation for our clients on the Chinese currency, the yuan, through the purchase of offshore, yuan-denominated bonds an exchange traded fund.   DSUM closed 2013 with a 6.32% gain, the year’s best-performing bond instrument on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to a dismal performance of -4.83% for the average emerging market bond fund.

After this stellar performance, this year’s weakness in the yuan is no surprise to us.  While the U.S. Treasury and th...

Aug 18, 2014
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Trading Psychology: Clear Your Head

As traders, we try to maintain a high level of concentration and performance at all times. The focus is on trading plans and processes, risk and reward, indicators and charts, coding and strategies, and about a million other possibilities at any given time. Truly, it is impossible for any human to keep track of all the information available.

When you get to the point where nothing makes sense it’s time to look away for awhile. I call this “data fatigue” and it occurs on many time frames. In t...

Aug 18, 2014
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