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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

March US T-Bond Futures: Trading Idea December 22, 2014

March U.S. T-bond Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

See on the daily bar chart for March U.S. Treasury bonds that prices have backed well down from last week’s contract high as the bulls have faded. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is poised to produce a bearish line crossover signal. See in recent months how well this indicator has worked at forecasting price trend changes. A move in prices below chart support ...

Dec 22, 2014
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DXY to 160, No, But 91 Likely

DXY gained 1.69% last week to close at 89.84. That move printed an engulfing, bullish candlestick on the weekly chart. As long as DXY remains above 88.68 I remain bullish.

However, a four-year cycle top is due now. The next short-term cycle high is expected during the first week of February.

A 3-wave move off the 2011 low and my own price forecasting model converge on a price target of 91.00. The breakout from the nine-year bottoming formation forecasts an ultimate move to 103. Thee recent ...

Dec 22, 2014
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U.S. dollar rose to new highs.

U.S. dollar ETF absolute price rose to its highest closing price level in more than 4 years on 12/19/14, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend.

U.S. dollar index futures continuation contract absolute price rose to its highest price level in more than 8 years on 12/19/14.

The S&P 500 Composite Index gapped higher again on Friday and rose further in the afternoon to close above the closing prices of the previous 9 trading days. U.S. stocks have become unusually volatile over the past 2 ...

Dec 22, 2014
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Selling Option Premium: Ideal Chance Next Week, But HURRY UP!

I talk about many different money-making strategies regularly, and among this is selling option premium.  This is one of the best and simplest ways to earn income, it can also allow you to get into a stock position at a lower price.  Next week offers a particularly good chance to get some positions working, as there are only 3 1/2 days of market action .  This is very similar to the market schedule during Thanksgiving week.  In fact, this is the third instance this year where there have been ...

Dec 20, 2014
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Well, Well, Well … No Market Collapse?

Well, yesterday’s market rebound from recent losses impressed me, as it did many others, but the closing was absolutely breathtaking. Yesterday’s finish surprised me in its strength and the message sent was the bulls were never out the game, that they were just waiting for the moment to capitalize on the bears insistence. Yesterday was the moment.

Today’s market action pushes this thesis further. The bears have an opportunity to capitalize on the sudden rush back toward recent record highs, a...

Dec 19, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Build Smart Performance Tables in Excel® Using RTD

If your vendor supports using Microsoft’s RTD syntaxand provides the ability to call market data by a date from the platform into Excel, then you can build a valuable market-performance table.

Traditional charting for reviewing past market-action can be somewhat tedious when looking to see how a particular stock or futures contract has performed during previous periods. For example, maybe you would like to see how Apple has performed during the month of December for the past ten years. Or pe...

Dec 22, 2014
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Holiday Stress and Trading Pressure: How to S.T.O.P. the Torment

The holiday season is here.  It’s time for celebrating and good cheer.  It’s also a time of heightened stress.  For many traders, who already feel lots of stress, the holidays can feel doubly difficult. 

Trading and Holiday Stress

We all know trading stress.  Recent losses and drawdowns can bring on stress.  So can managing a position, especially if it backs up on you.  Even profitable positions can be stressful.  We don’t normally think about profitable trades as stressful, but I have seen m...

Dec 16, 2014
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RSI, Better Price Oscillator Than MACD

Most traders are unaware there are three types of oscillators used for stock analysis. These are based on three different data streams –

  • Price Oscillators that use price and time data,
  • Volume Oscillators that use quantity and time,
  • Hybrid Oscillators that use price, quantity, and time.

There are innumerable price and time indicators and many are oscillators, but one stands out from all the rest – Relative Strength Index . It is not the most popular, but it is the best price oscillator for sho...

Dec 16, 2014
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Trading Fears – Why We Have Them And What To Do About Them

Trading fears are not the sole domain of new traders, actually far from it. Much misunderstood, fear can hit at any time. The real issue about trading fears has to do with bumping up against your thresholds, which can happen at any time.

Growth and Development, Evolutionary Universal Laws

You are growing and changing all the time, for the most part not noticing that it is happening. However, when an evolutionary impulse hits, and you are standing in the way, like most people are, it can get ...

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Planning For Retirement? Plan Again

It's Christmas time. Everyone has been good little boys and girls, working diligently these past 40 years or more, marching toward America's promise, the golden years when one can lay down the work tools and enjoy the comforts of retirement.

A False Promise

The post-war generation – World War II – came back and raised families based on a simple promise –work hard, buy a house, save money, and when old enough, retire, as in stop working. Now, their children are ready to realize that promise an...

Dec 9, 2014
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