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Market Commentary

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A Fan of Volatility? Think March E-Mini S&P 500

If you are a fan of volatility and wild rides in the markets, you are probably enjoying the first month of trading for 2015. Central Banks around the globe have made things interesting, as some of their decisions have sent secondary markets into frenzy. Crude oil continues to grab attention, and it has consumers and investors both asking, “How low can it go? “

In the Eurozone, we started off the week wondering how elections results in Greece would be felt in the currency markets. The euro has...

Jan 29, 2015
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Could AutoNation Be A Target Of Soros?

On January 25th, CNBC’s Phil LaBeau reported that representatives of the Soros Management Fund were in California to attend the National Automobile Dealers Association’s annual meeting and they spoke with car dealer owners about possible deals. If Soros does decide to take a stake or acquire an entire dealership, this would follow Warren Buffett’s purchase of Van Tuyl Group last October .

Valuation

AutoNation is a $7B automotive retailer that owns more than 200 stores in the United States a...

Jan 29, 2015
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Futures Market Review and Forecast: Three Downside Targets

As I noted yesterday, “another move below the Floor increases the odds of much lower prices .”   The Floor support at 2027 was tested for several hours on Wednesday, but turned into resistance after the FOMC announcement.

  • This puts three levels in play to the downside: 1984, 1963 and 1842.

A Note on Volume Profile

The histogram on the left side of the chart shows the volume distribution in the S&P futures for the entire year of 2014 through today. Key levels are indicated by the peaks and tro...

Jan 29, 2015
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ESH5: S&P Mini Futures Bust Support, Crash, And Burn

Early Wednesday morning, we were leaning long on the S&P500 mini futures , hitching our wagon to modestly hopeful technical indicators.

The futures didn't fall out of bed in the overnight trading, and the ESH5 clawed back up to the 20/40-day moving average line from the previous day's decline. No real strength, but enough to dull the fear and encourage the greed.

By the end of the day session Wednesday, the market had broken all of the support levels and closed near the low of the day. So muc...

Jan 29, 2015
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Soy Bean Counting Toward A Reversal To The Upside

Since the release of the January 12th crop report, soy beans have dropped over .85 cents.  The key question is, how much more down side risk is there left? 

There is a series of underlining fundamentals that could have both a bullish and bearish effect on the market.  On the bearish side, the trade believes that the late March planting intentions report will show 5% more soybeans will be planted this year.  This 5% increase comes at the expense of corn, due to soybean’s higher price. 

On the ...

Jan 28, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Learn To Navigate Your Assets In Times Of Big Change

  • One Risk Aspect Often Overlooked When Assessing Risk

There are many aspects to trading risk. The risk to capital exposure due to excessive position size relative to one’s stops is obvious. Co-relation of your positions in today’s highly co-related markets is another aspect that must be considered, and, of course, you know about the risk of not diversifying your assets.

But have you ever considered the risk you are assuming from your brokerage account? I am talking about your brokers’ ability ...

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Why Smart Traders Do Dumb Things

"Everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the face."Mike Tyson

In the past 10 years, we have helped hundreds of retail traders learn to trade futures. Most begin by using a simulation account – paper trading – and most of them quickly learn to trade profitably ... as long as they aren't trading real money. But many of the same people who can accurately assess opportunities and fearlessly trade them using paper money turn into timid, indecisive losers the minute they have to do exactly...

Jan 27, 2015
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Three Questions With The Power To Transform Your Trading

There are three simple but powerful questions which can transform our trading when we ask them of ourselves consistently over time.  They are powerful because they form the basis of mental flexibility and mental agility.  Wouldn’t you like to be mentally more resilient and deft?

The three questions can be asked anytime you are preparing for trading, executing, and managing trades, or reviewing your trading results — in other words, anytime you are engaged in a trading-related activity.  The t...

Jan 26, 2015
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Look To Platinum And The PGM in 2015

Given a growing global demand for platinum, palladium, and rhodium, three of the six metals in the platinum metals group , and the increasing cost to mine platinum, we are focusing our efforts to accumulate platinum over the course of the year. PGM, specifically platinum, is an excellent store of value and it performs well as an inflation hedge.  One could argue that platinum – and the other meals in the PGM - are a better long term hedge than gold, as there are a number of industrial uses fo...

Jan 23, 2015
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Taking A Peek Inside (the) Box

The volatility roiling the broader markets has, at least thus far, kept a lid on the IPO market in 2015. To date, just two companies have braved the elements with County Bancorp and Patriot National going public on January 16.

This week, however, the IPO market will once again find itself in the spotlight as a well-known tech company makes its long-awaited debut in the public markets. Specifically, on January 22, Box, Inc. – a provider of cloud-based storage and file sharing services – is ...

Jan 22, 2015
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