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Market Commentary

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No Reason To Change The Plan

More numbers are in and there are revisions to the US government’s second and third quarter economic data reports. Not that it matters, really, as they are lagging numbers, but they do show a stronger continuation of the economic pattern that has been happening now for years.

  • The economy in the U.S. expanded more than previously forecast in the third quarter, reflecting bigger gains in consumer spending and business investment and capping the strongest six months of growth in a decade.

True,...

Nov 25, 2014
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March Britain Pound Futures: Trading Idea November 25, 2014

March British Pound Futures a Selling Opportunity on More Price Weakness

See on the daily bar chart for the March British pound futures that prices are in a downtrend and last week hit a contract low. Prices are also now in a pause mode, which is not bullish. A move in prices below chart support at the contract low of 1.5576 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 1.5000, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is...

Nov 25, 2014
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Violation of Aussie Support Favors More Downside

The value of the Aussie dollar to the greenback is breaching a key chart support level this week. Concurrently, momentum is showing a bearish signal. Together, these conditions place odds on deeper losses to come.

As the chart below shows, the Aussie has struggled with support at 0.866 - derived from the January low - since October. Price is falling below that threshold this week after three weeks of a tepid attempt by the bulls to take the market higher.

 

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 Meanwhile, unless the market rec...

Nov 25, 2014
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U.S. Bonds and Stocks Confirmed Upside Momentum

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF absolute closing price rose to its highest level in more than 3 weeks on 11/24/14, confirming renewed upside momentum.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF absolute closing price rose to its highest level in more than 3 weeks on 11/24/14, confirming renewed upside momentum.

The S&P 500 Composite Index finished at another new all-time closing price high to reconfirm its preexisting uptrend.

NYSE total volume fell 20% to a le...

Nov 25, 2014
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The S&P 500 Is Going To Crash

Yes, the headline is true, but knowing when it is going to crash is more important than if it is going to crash. We have seen four crashes in the last 16 years, so expecting it not to crash would just be silly.

I have seen that headline over and over for the last four years. Some were quick to jump on the “I told you so” crash of 2010 or the big drop in 2011, but each huge drop was quickly bid back to its former high position. Most of these “crash callers” are looking for a 2008-2009 type mov...

Nov 25, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Trading Crude Oil Using Price & Volume across Multiple Time Frames

Crude oil has had a significant decline since June 2014.  Looking back through the lens of multiple timeframes we can see how price and volume gave clear indications a large decline was about to occur.  In particular, we can see at work some of the principles first described by Richard Wyckoff nearly a century ago and how these principles can be applied for excellent trade entry and exit locations as the modern market is unfolding.

A Reasonable Question

You may be thinking, “How could someone...

Nov 25, 2014
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Playing Precious Metals And Not Losing Your Shirt

The precious metals markets, namely gold and silver, offer traders the allure of large profits.  However, high margins and unpredictable volatility are often too much for the average retail trader to handle.  Likewise, using unleveraged alternatives, such as the ETF, GLD, forces traders to face other obstacles, including inefficient price movement and hidden costs.  There are some alternative lower risk products available to those interested in dipping their toe into metals trading, but there...

Nov 18, 2014
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Track The Dark Pools With The Balance Of Power (BOP) Indicator

The most challenging aspect of the automated-order marketplace is to find an indicator that can reveal where the Dark Pools are accumulating a stock over time, and which stocks they are quietly rotating out of to lower their held shares of a required chartered stock.

Rotation and accumulation are hidden these days on Dark Pool venues that do not show the huge lot orders moving through the automated system. Before the year 2005, giant lot orders were either handled by market makers on the exch...

Nov 11, 2014
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The Consumer May Be Feeling Better this Holiday Season

The holiday season is just around the corner. Traders and economic watchers will be closely watching the Retail Sector given the dismal turnout by consumers in recent years. The XRT peaked in 2013 and since has traded sideways, until today.  There are clues that this year may be a different season for both the consumer and retailers alike, and traders will be following the XRT to signal a breakout.

 Figure 1, Weekly Chart of the XRT


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Lower Prices at the Pump

Beginning mid-summer, consumers...

Nov 10, 2014
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Growing CRO Industry & Acquisition of Covance (CVD) Put INC Research IPO in Spotlight

In a very busy week for IPOs, one deal that stands out from the pack is INC Research , a Contract Research Organization that solely focuses on conducting Phase 1 to Phase 4 clinical trials for biopharmaceutical and medical device companies.

Its 8.1 million share IPO is expected to price on November 6 within a range of $17-$20, and then open for trading the following morning.

There are a few primary aspects to this deal that caught my attention. First, from a fundamental perspective, the comp...

Nov 5, 2014
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