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Market Commentary

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Will The Fed Confirm A Sept Rate Hike? No Way

The FOMC meeting ends this afternoon.  There will be no press conference, only an announcement.  Some think the announcement will give further confirmation of a hike this year, perhaps at the next meeting in September.  I don’t think so.

Below is testimony from Janet Yellen’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report from February 24, 2015.

Foreign economic developments, however, could pose risks to the outlook for U.S. economic growth. Although the pace of growth abroad appears to have stepped up sl...

Jul 29, 2015
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August Traditionally Is Seasonal Boon For Gold

Among the headwinds that countervail any ascent in Gold was the disappointing news a few weeks ago that China’s Gold reserves had only rose 57 percent in a span of 6 years. I wrote a day after the data was released from the Peoples Bank of China that this could be some type of deception by the Chinese government to alter the perception that they weren’t building their Gold reserves fast enough to support their fledgling currency.

 

While that still could be true it has been the withdrawal in ...

Jul 29, 2015
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Gold Could Drop 50% From Its 2011 High

Gold peaked at just above $1900/oz back in 2011.  Since then it has been working lower in fits and spurts and is now more than 40% off those peak prices.

Looking at a weekly continuous chart of gold futures, it’s easy to see how gold has repeatedly declined into zones of support and found buyers, however never enough to turn the trend of prices back to the upside.

The high-volume areas that were created on the rally during the years 2010 and 2011 have accurately defined the levels of suppor...

Jul 29, 2015
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Why Is The US Dollar In The Doldrums?

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column .

On Tuesday pundits were aflutter because the dollar had an up day, pointing to expectations that the Fed would soon clarify its intentions to raise rates. Technically, Tuesday was a “star” with a very small range, and inside bar which closed well below Monday’s open. It was indicative, at most, of a wait-and-see stance.

Technically, using the dollar index, DXY, the dollar, while not “in the doldrums”, isn’t yet rob...

Jul 29, 2015
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Fed Meeting Today: What You Need To Know

The S&P500 mini-futures had a nice little bounce yesterday, finishing at 2087.25, some 23 points above the previous close. The futures gained 20 points in the overnight trading, gave most of it back at the day session open, then climbed steadily throughout the day to a strong close near the high of the day.

Terrific. So the decline is over and we can all go back to dreaming about new highs and an endless Bull market, right?

Not quite. There’s a bit of evidence the market’s performance yester...

Jul 29, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Central Bankers Recreating Reality

A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgment based upon it.

Bertrand Russell

We will at some point in time publish a full in depth article in terms of how Central bankers have been actively employing psychological strategies to deceive the masses for generations. In essence, central bankers have been recreating reality, and the sad part is that the masses now assume that this altered reality is the new norm.  We are going to illustrate this by highlighting excerpts...

Jul 28, 2015
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Profit From “Hidden” Fundamentals Of Crude Oil

 

By: James Cordier, Michael Gross

 

An outsider watching the prices of crude oil shift up or down may think this is some sort of random event.

“Who is causing this?” gas buyers and clueless politicians often demand, as though an evil oil company executive is sitting in a room throwing a lever to turn the supply on or off.

As an investor willing to do a little homework, however, you’ll find projecting price ranges for oil is a little less populist rhetoric and little more science and common s...

Jul 28, 2015
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How To Develop True Trading Confidence

Brett found trading confidence elusive.  "If only I was more confident, I'd be a better trader," Brett explained.  What might cultivate more confidence?  "Making more winning trades, of course."  Sorry, that’s the wrong answer.

The Source of True Trading Confidence

Trading confidence doesn’t come from the number of winning trades, how much money was won, or other ‘statistical’ measures.  True trading confidence comes from mastering the various skills needed to read the market and execute and ...

Jul 27, 2015
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IPOs: Watch This Healthy Pet Food Maker

Before the market opens on Wednesday, July 22, healthy pet product maker Blue Buffalo Pet Products’ 29.5 million share IPO is expected to price within a range of $16-$18. The lead underwriters on the deal are JP Morgan and Citigroup. BUFF’s IPO comes on the heels of another healthy pet food IPO, Freshpet , which went public on November 7, 2014. Taking a look back on how that IPO fared, its’ 10.4 million share IPO priced at $15, above the $12-$14 range, but then slid lower over the first few ...

Jul 21, 2015
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Tanger (SKT): A Bargain For Income Investors

 

Why Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Is a Bargain for Income Investors

With global interest rates still near record lows . In particular, income investors should consider Tanger Factory Outlet Centers due to: 1) the firm’s high dividend yields, 2) its ability to increase cash flows when inflation is rising, and 3) robust demand growth for quality outlet mall space. In general, I also like REITs because their legal structure allows management to deduct dividends from the firm’s taxable income...

Jul 17, 2015
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