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Market Commentary

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Market Review and Forecast: 50 Points To Go In The NQ

The Nasdaq 100 pushed up to a new high on Monday and stalled about 50 points from our target zone . It may get there on Tuesday. This zone is a Fib Extension Zone, and markets tend to reach this level of extension 80% of the time, once they post a new high.

The NQ is much stronger than AAPL right now, and it is demonstrating that it doesn’t need AAPL to participate in order to zoom higher. That’s bullish.  

By the way, Volume Profile is not particularly useful when an index is making new all...

Mar 3, 2015
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ESH5: There's Nobody Here But Us Algos, And We're Going Higher.

Yesterday

In our pre-market summary yesterday, we pointed out that the short-term uptrend was intact, and mentioned 2112-2114 as a likely target for the S&P 500 mini futures . We got our target – the market closed at 2114 – and the continuing rally is reassuring the bulls. Now, if only we could get some volume back into the market.

Right now, it looks as if it is only the machines trading with each other. The volume yesterday was about average for the new normal in the futures, but it is pre...

Mar 3, 2015
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Is The Market Ahead Of Itself?

In my line of work, I come across thoughtful perspectives, reasoned opinions, and flat-out nonsense. The latter I simply dismiss, but thoughtful and reasoned are not easy to shun, even when they go against my own line of thinking.

Hence, I just read an article this morning that suggested the market was getting ahead of itself, especially since the recent US economic data has not been superlative. The writer’s case for the recent economic data was both thoughtful and reasonable, which makes it...

Mar 2, 2015
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Watch For Shifts In Commercial Traders’ Biases

One of the primary differences between professional traders and amateur speculators is that professional traders are only focused on the bottom line while novice traders typically find themselves in love with the story of a trade and are far more concerned with “calling the move.” It is this mentality that also leads new traders down the illusive path of homerun-hitting trading programs.

Perhaps, the best example of this is attempting to profit from the short side in stock-index futures. The ...

Mar 2, 2015
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Market Review and Forecast: Watch AAPL

The Nasdaq 100 still has not decided whether it will enter a corrective period or not. I suggest watching AAPL.

The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 Futures for 30 days and Apple for 50 days. The High Volume Node at 4441 is now critical support for the NQ. It directly corresponds to the $128 level for AAPL, which is why I show these charts side by side.

Although the NQ is much stronger than AAPL right now, if AAPL were to move down to fill the gap we have been ...

Mar 2, 2015
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Featured Stories

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What You Must Know About Inter-Market Relationships (Part 2 of 2)

Last month, we initiated the discussion of inter-market relationships focusing on the currency market’s influence over commodity prices .   Let’s turn our attention to the relationships that exist between various asset classes. Some of the conclusions from data will likely go against conventional wisdom. 

Stocks and Bonds Can Go up and Down Together

The oldest adage in the finance industry is, “Stocks up, bonds down”.  The quip stems from conventional theory suggesting there are two primary i...

Mar 2, 2015
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Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another.

Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act , those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it.

But in 2014, President Barack Ob...

Feb 24, 2015
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Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals.  Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event.  The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart.  Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating.

The erratic behavior in pr...

Feb 23, 2015
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A Dramatic Year – 2015 Financial Collapse?

The European Central Bank recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term.

The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe does not...

Feb 23, 2015
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How Hidden Flaws in Your Decision-Making Affect Your Trading

Too many traders, trading psychology means dealing with negative emotions like fear and greed.  We all know that negative emotions can cause trading difficulties.  However, many of us don’t know that the way we think can cause big problems, too.  We can be blind-sided by our thinking and decision making—especially when we use our normal, everyday problem-solving approaches in trading.  These are traders’ mental blind spots, and they crop up in every trader’s trading.  The irony is we usually ...

Feb 20, 2015
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