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Market Commentary

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The Market Running Away From What?

Earlier this week, I mentioned Dr. Gary Dayton’s article on the “experts” who predict market movement , and then just yesterday, I wrote …

  • It appears we are back to the days of the market wanting to go up, struggling with the latest news, but no longer running away. True, nothing is certain in life, save death and taxes …

Well, it is true, nothing is certain, as today the market is running away from the news, and along with options expiring today, the downward move is wholly exaggerated. Neve...

Apr 17, 2015
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ESM5: Mini-futures Form A Doji Near The Top Of A Good Run. Be Careful.

Yesterday

The S&P 500 mini futures gapped down at the open and traded in the red for the entire morning session. Then a handful of Fed presidents began giving speeches, and the market marched up like a good little soldier in response. But it was all for nothing. The mini rally failed to break the prior day's high, and by the end of the afternoon, the gains all melted away. The futures closed at 2100.75 – an important number – for a gain of one point.

This candlestick pattern – a long body wi...

Apr 17, 2015
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A Fly in the Bottle

This is a chart of the Nasdaq futures over the last two months. While the index has presented tradable moves in both directions, the overall picture is one of a choppy and volatile consolidation.

As noted yesterday, the fast moves create Speed Zones that eventually beget sudden reversals, trapping bulls and bears alike. 

The shaded blue area marks the current active consolidation range. Think of it as a bottle with a fly buzzing around inside trying to get out. The NQ closed on Thursday at th...

Apr 17, 2015
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Is Crude Really Making A Comeback?

Over the past few weeks, we have seen crude oil rise sharply and, just Wednesday, it reached levels not seen in months. The commodity is up sharply, having rallied more than 10% in a week.  Of course, we’ve seen short-lived rallies before, so is this just another one that will fade or is this going to stick? 

That’s a great question and clearly will tell us the chances of making profitable trades.  We should note crude futures have jumped higher, so that would certainly give substance to a co...

Apr 16, 2015
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Ya Gotta Believe That With …

It appears we are back to the days of the market wanting to go up, struggling with the latest news, but no longer running away. True, nothing is certain in life, save death and taxes , but as it stands now, the market is flirting with all-time highs, again.

Perhaps the floating rumors about the Fed not raising rates until 2016, or, at the earliest, the end of this year, are buoying the market. Then again, earnings have not been so bad, thus far. Companies are beating generally low expectation...

Apr 16, 2015
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Featured Stories

More Featured Stories
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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading.

It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp:

When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader.

If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely, certainly d...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy , a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public.

Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy , is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range.

The IPO features prominent underwriters, with Goldm...

Apr 15, 2015
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Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

W. D. Gann – a trader active during the first half of the 20th Century and a developer of unique analytical methods, such as the Square of 9 and Gann Angles –

was reputed to be able to predict within a few ticks the top and bottom of a stock’s range within a specified period of time.  Richard Wyckoff claimed that Gann’s trading ability was so good that it was “… probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.”

Picking Tops and Bottoms

Wouldn’t it be wonderful to be able to pick the top or...

Apr 14, 2015
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Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

When most people hear about day trading without charts, it conjures up images of other feats of derring-do –boxing with one arm tied behind your back, tightrope walking blindfolded, and bringing a knife to a gunfight all come to mind.

Are we discussing a feat possible only by the fearless few, or is it possible that Day Trading Without Charts is something that is quite straightforward? The fact is we are conditioned to use charts because every trading book, course, and educational forum is fo...

Apr 13, 2015
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Using Weekly Options To Your Advantage

The CME Group has spent the last few years adding weekly options to their product arsenal.  Their goal has been to provide speculators with more “options”, but they’ve also succeeded in finding a way to increase trading volume and, thus, their bottom line.  In other words, weekly options have been a success on all fronts.

According to the U.S. futures exchange giant, weekly options provide users with increased flexibility in managing existing option positions, and new opportunities to trade h...

Apr 13, 2015
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