Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
“Conflicted” is the word today. Economic data is always conflicted, as it is today. Industrial Production is slightly down, but the Empire State Manufacturing Index is way up, almost double the previous reading.
Unemployment is higher than it should be, when you count the all the folks who have given up looking for a job, but …
- In the first half of this year, the hourly compensation in the U.S. nonfarm business sector increased 3 percent from the year before. That compares with an average ...
Consider Buying a Put Option on December Live Cattle Futures
See on the daily bar chart for December live cattle futures that prices have backed well down from the recent contract high, including scoring a significantly bearish “key reversal” down, which is an early clue of a market top being in place. Prices also closed at a bearish weekly low close on Friday. Consider buying a put option on December live cattle futures, with a downside price objective of $150.00, or below. The option expir...Read More
I have two pieces of good news this week .
1. You will never again have to read about how the 2011 sideways movement has caused confusion over from which date to count the last basic advance in the 2009 bull market.
2. Even if the sideways movement confusion had not been resolved previously, time has taken care of the any lingering uncertainties.
[Editor's note: Read Carlson's related analysis: A Top Is Near Or Here: 6-Month Cycle Highs In The S&P 500.]
The last several months have been s...Read More
The chart below is a long-term look at volatility . The current low VIX readings are similar to the period of low VIX over the years of 2005, 2006, and into the beginning of 2007, which saw the S&P 500 index move from the 1200 level to north of 1500, a 25% gain .
The picture in VIX continues to suggest that the current bull trend remains in force.
The last period of sustained low VIX preceded our last financial crisis but it is worth noting that prior to the index making its high in 2007 ...
There is a scene in Shakespeare's play, Julius Caesar, where Caesar, while walking to the Senate and his eventual assassination, is warned by a soothsayer in the street: “Beware the Ides of March.” Caesar is uneasy, but ignores the warning – and is unexpectedly ambushed.
It feels like something similar is happening to the stock markets. Traders are uneasy.
The sharp decline in the S&P 500 index on Friday and the further decline over the weekend looked like everybody suddenly deciding they di...
Featured StoriesMore Featured Stories
This month marks the sixth year after Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11, an act that served as a precursor to market meltdown of October 2008.
Six years later, and despite the amazing recovery for the general market since the market bottomed in 2009, the financials as a sector continues to lag.
Figure 1, the 10-year PerfChart for the S&P Sector ETFs, depicts the Financials relative weakness during a decade plagued by low interest rates that created an environment for risk taking ending...
Get ready for the most active season in the stock market.
The last quarter has the highest trading activity of the year for the stock market and for the market in general.
Here are some of the major events that traders are ready to speculate upon heading into the fourth quarter:
1. Last earning season of the year – main reason why market will accelerate its action into the year end
2. Black Friday / Cyber Monday so-called Cornucopia Trading
3. Christmas Rally
4. Quarterly Expiration /...
With the Dow recently surging past 17,000, the debate is on about whether it is a bubble that is looking for a pinprick or if it is a strong bull market that will power past 18,000 and beyond.
Yes…it could definitely go to 18,000 or 19,000 or more in the short term because the main driver is not a bullish economy…it is the bullish impact of Federal Reserve policy. In other words, this is an artificial bull market that is driven by monetary stimulus. The danger of a pull-back or a sharp correc...
Performance anxiety for traders is the fear, or persistent phobia which may arise in a trader by the requirement to take a real trade, in real time, with real money whether actually or potentially.
There are many causes of this anxiety which many times leave a new trader with too much fear to really trade. Fear sends them out of the markets to go join the 90% that did not make it. This fear can arise from past losses that were so big and traumatizing that a trader can’t bear the potential of...Read More
In previous articles I have detailed how to use Excel’s data visualization functionality to highlight market information. The data is brought into Excel using Microsoft’s RTD syntax from a market information and trading platform.
The article, Excel Heat Mapping For Market Data Visualization, shows the steps to heat map percent net change and color those markets that were at the extremes of percent change up or down for the day. A separate article, Use Excel Sparklines For Data Visualization,...Read More