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Market Commentary

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All Over The Map Today

The market today is acting rather sedate after two days of losing steam. To my vision, this behavior is expected. Given the sudden rush to the top, smashing all ceilings and building new floors, it is apparent the market needed some time to completely digest the new levels, and it took that time with two days of selling off. It is now closer to “right.”

Yet, today’s US economic news came out soft, so one would expect the market to see trouble down the road and it would continue to sell off, b...

Mar 5, 2015
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The Euro Currency – A Bearish Play

Mario Draghi gave a bit more detail Thursday morning about the European Central Bank’s asset purchase program. Starting on March 9th, the EU will start buying bonds at a rate of 60 billion Euros a month to fight of the threat of deflation.  Draghi also stated that the program is planned to continue through September of 2016.

The ECB is committed to a QE program similar to what the Federal Reserve did in the U.S. six years ago. The ECB seems confident this is the way to go, after some mixed r...

Mar 5, 2015
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Market Review and Forecast: In the Megaphone

On Wednesday the Nasdaq 100 dipped down into its megaphone pattern, but without a lot of enthusiasm. In other words, the selling did not get intense or vicious.

The futures closed the day session very near to the Volume Point of Control , which is now 4442.75. Again, I’d like to point out the size of the volume histogram peak at that level. This area is acting as a strong price magnet and stabilizing factor. That’s bullish for the tech index, which is outperforming the S&P.

My upside target ...

Mar 5, 2015
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Positioning For A Return To $100 In Restoration Hardware

While fellow home furnishings and improvements company, Lumber Liquidators, deals with a plunging stock price on allegations of Chinese laminate wood flooring that contains high levels of formaldehyde, Restoration Hardware continues to thrive. The $3.6B company issued stronger Q4 guidance on February 5th , to the tune of $1.00-$1.01 per share in EPS on revenue of $583M . Comps were for +24% vs the +19.5% consensus .

Valuation

The stock does trade at a P/E ratio of 30.48x , but the 27%+ earnin...

Mar 4, 2015
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ESH5: The Fed Is Talking It Up, Again

Yesterday

The market was on the way down in overnight trading and right after the open, before a strong support area and a “soft” intervention from the Federal Reserve reversed the decline. The S&P 500 futures still ended the day down 8.50 points, but it could easily have been much worse.

The decline began overnight, when European traders were perhaps anticipating a bad number for the ADP payroll report released in the pre-market session, and continued for the first hour, when the futures bo...

Mar 4, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Miss This Six-Year Bull Run? Don’t Beat Yourself Up, Be Mindful

The Nasdaq Composite Index reclaimed 5,000 for the first time since 2000, stirring investor’s emotions.  Some investors are in high spirits.  They feel good about the money being made from the Naz’s strong momentum and the promise of still higher prices to come.  Many other investors feel disheartened, however, because they haven’t been in the market enjoying this wonderful bull advance.

These sidelined investors are now kicking themselves for missing out on one of the longest bull markets in...

Mar 5, 2015
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The Truth About Live Futures Trading Rooms

The Global Futures Trade Room Industry

Right now – today - the global futures trade room industry is massive and growing at a rate of about 60 new rooms/yr.

When I started to evaluate futures trade rooms in 2009, finding the most successful rooms was an intractable problem – there weren’t any established guidelines, rooms could not be distinguished using search engine parameters, and all glittered with success and wealth. Free room trials were still the best option, but to accelerate data c...

Mar 4, 2015
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What You Must Know About Inter-Market Relationships (Part 2 of 2)

Last month, we initiated the discussion of inter-market relationships focusing on the currency market’s influence over commodity prices .   Let’s turn our attention to the relationships that exist between various asset classes. Some of the conclusions from data will likely go against conventional wisdom. 

Stocks and Bonds Can Go up and Down Together

The oldest adage in the finance industry is, “Stocks up, bonds down”.  The quip stems from conventional theory suggesting there are two primary i...

Mar 2, 2015
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Unlocking Your Phone Is Legal Again -- What Does It Mean For The Wireless Carriers?

Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another.

Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act , those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it.

But in 2014, President Barack Ob...

Feb 24, 2015
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Options Trading Strategies: Lessen Volatility In Your Portfolio

Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals.  Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event.  The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart.  Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating.

The erratic behavior in pr...

Feb 23, 2015
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