Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
It wasn’t much of a week in the stock market. The S&P500, the large-cap index, closed the week at 2090.11, less than a point above where it started. But at least it was better than Black Friday.
Black Friday, the day after the Thanksgiving holiday, is the busiest day of the year for US retailers, and it has become a harbinger of what they can expect for the holiday shopping season.
Since the holiday season accounts for about 20% of the year’s returns, everybody wants it to get started with a ...Read More
I published an article in Trader Planet on 11/20 forecasting a breakout to new all-time highs for the S&P 500 before year end. I was imagining we might get that move started by the end of November, but so far it’s been 10 days of consolidation instead.
Perhaps the market is waiting for more bad news; some sort of disappointment that would catalyze a short sell off. That’s how many ‘surprise’ rallies begin and it’s the surprise rallies that tend to be the strongest.
Meanwhile, the S&P is coil...Read More
In last week’s Hybrid Lindsay forecast, Middle Section forecasts from both the Basic and Multiple cycles pointed to a high for the November run-up in the Dow on Monday, November 23. As of last Friday, both the closing and intra-day highs occurred one trading day early, the previous Friday, November 20.
Moving from the Dow Industrials to small caps… according to Stock Traders’ Almanac, the January Effect now begins in mid-December. The chart below shows the relative performance of small caps...Read More
Holiday trading is hard. Domestic market closures and shortened trading sessions due to our own holidays can create choppy trading conditions and significant price gaps from one close to the next open. Furthermore, the current news cycle only worsens these conditions as domestically traded markets become influenced by the world’s pent up need to act in the face of the stories being run. Frankly, the only advantage I’ve ever really had during holiday trading was less competition among the loca...Read More
One of the four fears of trading is the fear of missing out. The late Mark Douglas, author of ‘Trading in the Zone’ talks about the relevance and how to overcome the four fears of trading, this one being the most important. Oh, the regret we feel when a trade goes away from us. I’ve felt it many times, so have you. The pain from not participating seems worse than that of getting punished on a bad trade. In options trading you can easily miss opportunity, kicking yourself all the way to chasin...Read More
Featured StoriesMore Featured Stories
The S&P e-Mini is one of my preferred trading markets. Because it is so actively traded, this market typically has excellent structure. What is structure, you might ask? It’s the areas of support and resistance that the market creates and reveals by its own actions on the chart. When a market is actively traded like the S&Ps, it is usually well-behaved and creates obvious market structure, which can then be traded. This is what makes the S&Ps such a good trading market.
Trading Market S...Read More
Despite the lack of broker approval, short option trading can be a high probability strategy
In last month’s article, we focused on the risks and challenges of short option trading, but now let’s center on the positive. The primary advantage of an option selling strategy is its ability to generate profits regardless of market direction. Further, an option seller can be wrong in regards to market direction and still make money. It is the only strategy that I’m aware of that offers such a hi...Read More
On Wednesday night, mobile payment processing company Square is expected to price its 27.0 million share IPO within a range of $11-$13, equating to total gross proceeds of $324.0 million, based on the mid-point of the proposed price range. As followers of the IPO market are keenly aware, high-profile deals – particularly from the technology sector – have been few and far between over the past several months. There will be no shortage of hype surrounding this deal, though, and the scarcity o...Read More
If you’re looking to put some high percentage option premium in your holiday gift bag, taking the opposite tack of the public in Natural Gas could be a great bet this year.
A popular notion among the public is that you buy natural gas ahead of winter. Gas prices, they reason, will have to rally once it gets cold out, right?
It sounds great but as with many things in investing, what sounds logical is often misleading folklore. The reality of it is this. Cold weather will indeed increase deman...Read More
Financial media and the financial industry pepper us with advice and recommended choices for “properly” diversifying our portfolios.
Almost without fail, this magic formula consists of a mix of stocks, bonds and cash. The more adventurous may go as far as recommending a real estate investment trust or Master Limited Partnership .
Yet, CNBC.com ran an insightful article several months back entitled “The Top 5 Mistakes Made by High Net Worth Investors”
Most telling was the #1 mistake on the li...Read More