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Market Commentary

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Clarity, Clarity, Speculation, and Creepy

I have to start the day with taking aim at Reuters News. Now, I get it, they have two different pieces of data here, but at first reading, this fact is hard to tell. The headlines are in bold below and right underneath each is the opening paragraph for each story.

  • U.S. services sector growth cools in April: Markit
  • The pace of expansion in the U.S. services sector eased from a seven-month high in April on a dip in new business growth, but hiring in the sector accelerated to its highest since J...
May 5, 2015
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More of the Same

Yesterday

The S&P500 mini futures made a continuation move up yesterday and rallied back to the familiar resistance level at 2115, before dropping back when the morning momentum died out. It still managed to close at 2109.25, eight points above the previous close, and above the opening gap. Volume was light, but the price action was bullish.

Monday's rally takes the minis back to the resistance level that has been forming the top of a rising wedge for many weeks . The price has been making ...

May 5, 2015
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Trading 101: Why I Never Buy or Sell That First Big Move

In the game of trading, there is always a rush to be the first one in or out of a stock’s huge move. It’s great fun and a huge ego boost to be able to “call that shot,” whether it’s a bottom or top.

There’s just one problem: These trading decisions are often impulsive and made without much thought. When a stock plunges, it may seem appropriate to stick your hand in and take a slice or big chunk, even if you don’t understand the technical damage that could be taking place. On the flip side, a ...

May 4, 2015
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Soft Landing for Icarus

The Nasdaq futures ended last week at the Weekly Pivot . Weekly pivots represent a balance point.

Then, we opened with some enthusiasm on Monday, gapping up about 13 points, and proceeded to advance into the Speedzone, as noted yesterday on the Volume Profile chart. This is a price range where we had a previous gap and it makes for fast movement when revisited, since markets have memory.

Despite the quick morning rally, the Nasdaq futures fell back to earth and closed more or less at the Week...

May 4, 2015
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Short this Rally - SPX

This market continues to run with an all-in or all-out mentality. We are seeing massive moves both up and down, which in the past, would take a few days to accomplish happen in a few hours.

The market makers aren’t giving the retail traders any time to think and is putting them on “react mode”. The problem with traders being in a “reaction mode” they make trading decisions based on emotions. Anybody who has been in this business for more than a couple of years knows, any trade you make based...

May 4, 2015
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Featured Stories

More Featured Stories
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The Rise of the Ugly Duckling Set-up in a “Channelized” QE Market Environment

So far 2015 has been a difficult environment for investors as the indexes have “chopped and slopped” in a mostly sideways range since December of 2014. Each time the market has appeared ready to bust out to new highs and begin a potentially strong, new trend to the upside, it has backed down into its prior price range relatively quickly. Conversely, each time the market has looked like it is ready to split wide open on the downside it has suddenly found its feet and turned back to the upside....

May 4, 2015
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Coffee – Broad View of Fundamentals Continues to Favor Call Sellers

 

2014 was a banner year for coffee prices as the market rallied off of Brazilian crop concerns right up through the critical “flowering” season in October. 

But as timely rains finally arrived  the market was forced to backtrack as projected crop damage ended up being much exaggerated.

This steady trend lower in prices made coffee an ideal market for call sellers for the past 6 months. The question becomes, is it still ideal for call sellers?

In our opinion, the answer to that question rema...

May 1, 2015
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Millenials – It Appears They Are Moving Out And In To Homes

Consumer and investor confidence dipped this past month. This, along with the other recent soft economic indicators, has led some analysts to lower GDP projections for 2015. So be it; let the predictions stand.

Me? I prefer to look past the month-to-month indicators. I look to indicators that are more long lasting, that are more predictive of a solid foundation for economic growth. One of those is real estate, a broad category, but because that, the far reaching fingers, the growth or non-gro...

Apr 28, 2015
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So Much For Ancient Greece and Biometrics Using The Eye

Today we go between ancient history and the future, which is now. We leave the market to its own devices, as it is again behaving as if it wants to go up. Maybe it is the tepid economic data coming out that has the market believing the Fed will remain sidelined until at least late in the year, or maybe it likes that spring is here. Whatever …

Greece is ancient history, you know Plato, the Iliad and the Odyssey, Homer, et al, but in today’s world, it appears the good folks of Greece do not wan...

Apr 27, 2015
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Old School Advice


Even with the prevalence of high speed trading and other complex algorithmic systems, it is often the tried and true strategies that can help you be successful over the long haul. Many investors try to reinvent the wheel, but often the most successful traders today have patterned their trading styles after those of the great traders of the past.


W.D. Gann


“How to Make Profits in Commodities” by W.D. Gann was written in the 1940s and updated in the early 1950s. It’s an excellent textbook-type...

Apr 27, 2015
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