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Market Commentary

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ESM5: A Noisy, Manipulated Market, Still Going Nowhere

Yesterday

Last Friday the US market sold off – big time. Yesterday it bounced back sharply. Both moves – up and down – were attributed to the same event, financial news from China.

Nothing much changed from Friday to Monday. No sudden wars, no big economic news, no new Fedspeak. It is just machines pushing the prices around for fun and profit. The ES remains inside a broad range. So does the SPX. As long as this range contains the price, anything else is just noise.

There is also a noticeab...

Apr 20, 2015
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A Bull Stampede

In yesterday’s market review, I forecast a rally into the 4370-4384 resistance zone.  That level was attained within the first 15 minutes of the day session on Monday. The next 5-minute bar, however, exploded 17 points to the High Volume Node at 4407 . 

The key lesson from Monday’s action is to recognize there’s nothing more bullish than a failed bearish pattern. Once the resistance zone was taken out, the bulls enjoyed a stampede though the mini Speed Zone between 4384 and 4407.

The short t...

Apr 20, 2015
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SPX- Range Bound – For Now

The SPX has been trading within a triangle range for the last 2 months. With every big thrust higher, the bulls are convinced it is breaking out, only to see those gains wiped out in a matter of hours. Then, when we see the big drop, the bears are convinced it is breaking down, only to see those gains wiped out in a matter of days/hours.

These fairly large moves are coming at warp speed and catching both sides leaning the wrong way. Once the long/short squeezes have completed, we are seeing t...

Apr 20, 2015
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So, You Want To Trade, Eh?

So you want to trade, eh? You want someone to teach you how to trade, eh? Well, then, make sure the first question out of any potential teacher’s mouth is: “Do you have the stomach for it?”

Last Friday was the kind of day professional traders may or may not see coming, but it is expected nevertheless. So, when it happens they see opportunity, the kind of opportunity that has characterized the market for the last, oh, four or five years – sell, the rip, buy the dip. It takes a strong stomach t...

Apr 20, 2015
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Bean-Meal Bulls Gaining Control

July soybean meal fell through major support last week near $315 per ton. There are two points to be made on the market’s action at these levels. Although it may be a bit of a, “chicken and the egg” situation regarding what happened last week, we feel its outcome provides a major clue towards forward direction. Finally, since we only trade forward direction, we’ll focus on the predictive nature of the events surrounding last week’s action in the soybean-meal futures market.

We’ll focus on two...

Apr 20, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Are You Using the Right Trading Style and Instrument?

Market Conditions Affect Profits

One of the benefits of the modern market structure with online trading is that anyone can trade just about any trading instrument using a variety of trading styles.

This is also one of the biggest challenges that face retail traders. There are literally too many choices and not enough reliable information to help them select the instrument and optimal trading style that best suits their unique personality, goals, and parameters.

Using the wrong instrument or t...

Apr 20, 2015
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Trader Development, Four Things Traders Need To Know

I have traded since 2001. Since that time I have come to understand that the most difficult thing to understand about trader development is the skills traders need to develop first have, on the face of it, nothing to do with trading.

It all comes down to one fundamental thing, which traders seem unable to grasp:

When you develop as a person you can’t help but develop as a trader.

If you really understood this statement, your trading difficulties would, if not disappear completely, certainly d...

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Can Etsy (ETSY) Craft a Winning IPO?

With a few exceptions – GoDaddy , a recent example – 2015 has been fairly light on headline-grabbing IPOs. That figures to change this week, however, as there are a few highly-recognizable companies looking to go public.

Of that set, the one that may garner the most attention is a high-growth online retailer catering mostly to women.  That company, Etsy , is offering 16.7 million shares with the deal expected to price within a $14-$16 range.

The IPO features prominent underwriters, with Goldm...

Apr 15, 2015
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Predicting the Market: Are The Experts Really Expert?

W. D. Gann – a trader active during the first half of the 20th Century and a developer of unique analytical methods, such as the Square of 9 and Gann Angles –

was reputed to be able to predict within a few ticks the top and bottom of a stock’s range within a specified period of time.  Richard Wyckoff claimed that Gann’s trading ability was so good that it was “… probably unparalleled in the history of the Street.”

Picking Tops and Bottoms

Wouldn’t it be wonderful to be able to pick the top or...

Apr 14, 2015
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Day Trading Without Charts – Volume Profile In Action

When most people hear about day trading without charts, it conjures up images of other feats of derring-do –boxing with one arm tied behind your back, tightrope walking blindfolded, and bringing a knife to a gunfight all come to mind.

Are we discussing a feat possible only by the fearless few, or is it possible that Day Trading Without Charts is something that is quite straightforward? The fact is we are conditioned to use charts because every trading book, course, and educational forum is fo...

Apr 13, 2015
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