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Market Commentary

More Market Commentary

Not a Bad Day For a Tuesday

And the beat goes on … The S&P 500 will try again today to close over 2000 for the first time in history. Will it make it? It is hard to say, as many still view the market as top-heavy, overvalued, and bubbly, which could mean some profit taking.

  • The S&P 500 earned $29.45 last quarter. That's 11.7% stronger than the year-ago figure of $26.36. It's also a bit better than the estimates of $29.29 being batted around at the end of calendar Q2.

Do the above numbers suggest companies are not earni...

Aug 26, 2014
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December Australian Dollar Futures: Trading Idea August 26, 2014

December Australian Dollar Futures a Selling Opportunity on Fresh Price Weakness

 See on the daily bar chart for the December Australian dollar futures that prices are still in a choppy downtrend. A move below .9200 would give the bears fresh downside near-term technical momentum and it would also become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be .9080, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at .9250.

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Aug 26, 2014
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Unusual Options Action: Big Player Snaps Up QEP

On Monday morning, QEP Resources joined the list of names in which we’ve seen unusual options activity in 2014.  Shares are up over 15% in 2014, outperforming both the broader market and the energy sector . 

Volume Data

With an average daily volume of under 1.5 million shares, QEP Resources is one of the lesser known names for unusual options activity in 2014.  Shares have traded in a 52-week range of $25.93-$35.03, having first crossed the $35 mark intraday on July 17 and again on August 19...

Aug 26, 2014
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Stocks: Lack Of Volume And Confirmation Waves Warning Flag

A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that the small caps had room to run and the expected target was 116-118.  IWM  iShares Russell 2000 Index is now at the lower end of the range, but it has traded in a very suspicious manner.

In the past, when the other U.S. indexes pushed higher like we have seen and the small caps lagged, they would then go into a euphoria style move and play catch up to the other indexes.

Divergences: Red Warning Flag

We have not really seen that style move and now we hav...

Aug 26, 2014
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Canadian Dollar: Loonie Hugs a Key Floor

I'm sticking with the foreign exchange markets this week as this asset class continues to show attractive position trade scenarios .

The Canadian dollar futures contract is pressing technical support at 0.9113 for the fifth consecutive day and intraday price weakness has so far attracted buying. This line in the sand is a 50% retracement of the uptrend from March to July. It acted as resistance in February and support upon three tests in May and June. Tests of 0.9113 earlier this month brough...

Aug 26, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Yellen Pulls Away the Punch Bowl, Will Rates Rise?

Let's focus in on negative interest rates and the potential for gold to increase in value.

As the Fed met in Jackson Hole over the weekend, gold was trying to hold on at the $1,300 level. Using a negative real interest rate model, gold should be around $1,400. Why? There is lots of concern about global GDP growth maintaining itself.

Let's take a look at the overall metals landscape. Some precious metals appear to be doing well. Palladium is at a 13-year high and rhodium is up 45% from the start...

Aug 25, 2014
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Use Oscillators To Determine Market Direction (Or Not)

Oscillators come in a number of different forms such as stochastic, relative strength and the commodity channel index.  Although the mathematical equations are different in each, the underlying principal by which oscillator calculations are made remains the same. 

How They Work

All oscillators compare the high and low of a given market move to its close.  This is the reason that oscillators are a bounded set of indicators. As the close of a market move approaches its high, the oscillator tra...

Aug 20, 2014
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The Professional Traders Opinion: Russian Sanctions Smoot-Hawley Revisited


Russia was once described by Sir Winston Churchill, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”  Those words, spoken in 1939, eloquently described the Western sense of Moscow as inscrutable and a menacing country that plays by its own rules; perhaps they are no different now with the extraordinary exception that today’s Russia is dressed in diplomat’s pinstripes folded around a pugilist’s muscle with a checkbook of an oil baron.  

What’s more, today Russia, along with China, Brazil, I...

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Go Long: Concerns Over the Chinese Yuan’s Weakness Are Overblown

On March 6, 2013 we initiated a long recommendation for our clients on the Chinese currency, the yuan, through the purchase of offshore, yuan-denominated bonds an exchange traded fund.   DSUM closed 2013 with a 6.32% gain, the year’s best-performing bond instrument on a risk-adjusted basis, compared to a dismal performance of -4.83% for the average emerging market bond fund.

After this stellar performance, this year’s weakness in the yuan is no surprise to us.  While the U.S. Treasury and th...

Aug 18, 2014
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Trading Psychology: Clear Your Head

As traders, we try to maintain a high level of concentration and performance at all times. The focus is on trading plans and processes, risk and reward, indicators and charts, coding and strategies, and about a million other possibilities at any given time. Truly, it is impossible for any human to keep track of all the information available.

When you get to the point where nothing makes sense it’s time to look away for awhile. I call this “data fatigue” and it occurs on many time frames. In t...

Aug 18, 2014
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