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Market Commentary

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October Lean Hog Futures: Trading Idea July 31, 2014

October lean hog futures a selling opportunity on more price weakness.

 

See on the daily bar chart for October lean hog futures that prices are in a steep four-week-old downtrend and have just hit a three-month low. The bears have good downside near-term technical momentum to suggest prices will continue to trend sideways to lower in the near term. A move below solid chart support at $104.00 would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be $96.00 or below. Technical ...

Jul 31, 2014
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What Does The Fed Announcement Really Mean?

On Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee announced that they would continue to trim back their stimulus program. Mortgage-backed securities purchases will be scaled down to $10 billion per month , and Treasury security purchases will drop by $5 billion per month to $15 billion. A surprise to no one was the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates at the current level and remain low for “a considerable time” after the conclusion of the taper.

The committee reminded us that the labor marke...

Jul 31, 2014
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What Happened To That Summer Rally?

Doesn't the market always rally in the summer?  

Many are used to seeing that summer rally start around Memorial Day and finish up around Labor Day.  Appears that is not the case this year , or was it just early, or will it be late?  Second quarter earnings season is in high gear now, by and large it's been positive.  Coming off a very rough Q1 which saw GDP negative for the first time since Q4 2012 it appears businesses have shaken off the weather and are growing again, continuing the solid...

Jul 31, 2014
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Is The Bottom In For Cliffs Natural Resources?

Shares of the $2.5 billion international mining and natural resources company, Cliffs Natural Resources , are down over 33% year to date. This underperformance has held Casablanca Capital, a 5.2% shareholder, to push for six seats on the board of directors. On July 29, the activist investor won as all six nominees were approved. This led to a 6.21% rise in the stock on heavy volume that led to a breakout above the downtrending channel that had been in place for all of 2014 .

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Options Activity...

Jul 31, 2014
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US Steel: Analysis Of A Trading Opportunity

This stock was blowing up on Stock Twits and Twitter this week. I’m speaking of United States Steel, which has overall been a pretty boring stock actually, at least it was. Most of my students were simply doing put sales or covered calls long term. Directionally, this was a hard one to really pinpoint until today.

Gap Is Key

I love this gap on X. It really ensured that any person, company or fund who sold X short is going to have to buy to close as of 7/30/14.  The black arrows show where the...

Jul 31, 2014
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Featured Stories

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Government Economic Data: Read Between The Lines

Last Sunday morning at 8:45 the U.S. State Department announced via Twitter that it had satellite images proving artillery was being fired from Russia into the Ukraine. And apart from the U.S. media, the world almost fell down laughing.

The 'proof' was a series of blurry photos taken by a commercial – not government – satellite. They show vague marks and dark spots labelled blast marks and shell craters from Russian rockets.

To the reporters covering the State Department, the pictures showed...

Jul 30, 2014
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What Could The End Of QE Mean For Markets?

The end of quantitative easing in the next few months, could lead to a drop in asset prices followed by yet another QE round, more debt and a further devaluation of paper currencies.

The QE economy —which started in 2009 and has continued through 2014 — saw the banks buying stocks, bonds, and real estate, while loaning money to Wall Street, which sparked an asset bubble. That economy is coming to a halt.

The crisis in Ukraine, pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine shooting down a passenger airliner a...

Jul 29, 2014
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Strange Times: The Unprecedented Bull Market

The S&P 500 is on pace to triple its March 2009 low of 676.53 in 2014, leaving many wondering what is driving such an unprecedented bull market.  Indeed, a widely respected figure at a major financial news network said to me earlier this month, “Even in the media, we’re left scratching our heads by a lot of what we’re witnessing right now.”  

On Thursday the SPX touched an intraday peak of 1991.39 to close at yet another new all-time high of 1987.98.  The 10-year Treasury yield had closed th...

Jul 25, 2014
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Top 10 Free Trading Resources

The following is a list of my top 10 favorite free resources on the web for investors and traders. None of these websites involve any cost, though some do offer the possibility to upgrade to a pay service. We did not include TraderPlanet, since you are already here.

1.www.TopStepTrader.com If you are intraday trader that is tempted to have CNBC on during your trading day here is an entertaining alternative. "Eddie the Broadcaster" will keep you informed with a solid mix of market news, specia...

Jul 23, 2014
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Forex Tips: When Trading Discipline Goes Too Far

“Stick to your trading plan” is what we hear said all the time and I’ve been known to say it too.  Although that may be the best thing to do, if your trading plan is ok, there’s the odd time that crops up that makes you question it.

Being a dedicated forex trader I’ve done some serious screen time.  Eyes locked furiously on the charts waiting for my setups, mesmerized by the ebb and flow of the markets.

While going about my normal trading day, there have been several instances where the radical...

Jul 22, 2014
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