Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
In the past, the market adage was 'Don't fight the Fed'. On Friday, after a small tussle at the release of Yellen's speech, Fischer was unequivocal about the chance of a near term hike and possibly two this year. The market took the message and fixed income markets sold off with blue euro$'s the weakest part of the curve, down 9 bps. The ten year yield rose 5.6 bps to just above 163. However, even with increased odds of a hike having been priced in, there's plenty of uncertainty about tr...Read More
There are two vastly different psychological forces at play when deciding to sell small cap stocks: One is selling for a loss and the other is selling for a profit. Fine tuning one’s approach toward selling in both situations is much harder and more important in the long run than buying stocks. With small caps, one’s selling strategy is extremely more important than buying because of the dramatic moves to the upside and downside that can occur with these stocks.
Selling stocks for a loss –...Read More
As we wind down the dog days of summer, the usual complaints are heard daily about markets: volatility is low, the markets don't move, volume is pathetic, the action is too thin to trade. Well, I can certainly understand the concern, and with a VIX settling in just under 14% for nearly two months, that is indicative of a sleepy market. We are trained to believe the markets are vulnerable to downside when participants show complacency, and that has certainly been the case since the 'Brexit'...Read More
Gold lost $18.90/oz. last week and closed on Friday at $1,321.50 . Resistance is at 1,365 and support is near 1,310. A break of 1,310 would lock in the double top pattern marked in the chart below. Gold triggered the triangle on the daily chart. It measures a minimum decline to 1,280. Seasonality is bullish in September.
Longer term, the weekly Coppock failed to confirm the recent high supporting expectations of an important top. An impulsive five waves down from 2011 tells us the decline was...
We’ve been discussing a new way of measuring market imbalance via the weekly Commitments of Traders reports. This week, we’ll compare our old method to the new method and see what it has to say about the silver futures’ recent decline.
There are several pieces of information on the included chart, which should make more sense once we walk you through it. The first two subgraphs display our tried and true Commitments of Traders discretionary methodology. This simple method has been robust acro...Read More