Market CommentaryMore Market Commentary
In my line of work, I come across thoughtful perspectives, reasoned opinions, and flat-out nonsense. The latter I simply dismiss, but thoughtful and reasoned are not easy to shun, even when they go against my own line of thinking.
Hence, I just read an article this morning that suggested the market was getting ahead of itself, especially since the recent US economic data has not been superlative. The writer’s case for the recent economic data was both thoughtful and reasonable, which makes it...Read More
One of the primary differences between professional traders and amateur speculators is that professional traders are only focused on the bottom line while novice traders typically find themselves in love with the story of a trade and are far more concerned with “calling the move.” It is this mentality that also leads new traders down the illusive path of homerun-hitting trading programs.
Perhaps, the best example of this is attempting to profit from the short side in stock-index futures. The ...Read More
The Nasdaq 100 still has not decided whether it will enter a corrective period or not. I suggest watching AAPL.
The accompanying chart shows the Volume Profile for the Nasdaq 100 Futures for 30 days and Apple for 50 days. The High Volume Node at 4441 is now critical support for the NQ. It directly corresponds to the $128 level for AAPL, which is why I show these charts side by side.
Although the NQ is much stronger than AAPL right now, if AAPL were to move down to fill the gap we have been ...Read More
The Real World
February was a terrific month for the stock market, but kind of crummy for everything else. Now we have to face the ides of March, when the weather changes and the world prepares for a reset. For investors, the future is not likely to be nearly as pleasant as the past.
First, the real world, and then we look at the market. In the real economy, February was a bust. The fundamental economic reports that are supposed to drive the market were almost universally dismal. US gross dom...Read More
A possible 3PDh formation can be seen on the Dow Industrials index chart. The peaks in Dec’13, July’14, and Sept’14 are the three peaks. At 9mo, the distance between peaks one and three meets Lindsay’s requirement that they be no more than 10mo apart.
The Sept/Oct. decline is the separating decline, and it is the only weak park of the formation. Lindsay was adamant that there be a base composed of two tests of the low. If the base were descending , it indicated a longer than normal domed hous...Read More
Featured StoriesMore Featured Stories
Last month, we initiated the discussion of inter-market relationships focusing on the currency market’s influence over commodity prices . Let’s turn our attention to the relationships that exist between various asset classes. Some of the conclusions from data will likely go against conventional wisdom.
Stocks and Bonds Can Go up and Down Together
The oldest adage in the finance industry is, “Stocks up, bonds down”. The quip stems from conventional theory suggesting there are two primary i...Read More
Believe it or not, it was illegal, until very recently, for you to unlock your smartphone and take it from one carrier to another.
Yes, illegal in the traditional sense. Thanks to a quirky interpretation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act , those who unlocked their phones, even as recently as a year ago could wind up behind bars for an unfathomable five years. That’s a long time for something as innocuous as using your property the way you want to use it.
But in 2014, President Barack Ob...Read More
Random price movements leave us with very little edge when it comes to reading the charts and technicals. Never mind fundamental analysis, which is simply impossible to explain how stock can move violently after a news event. The market is simply designed around accumulation and distribution, seen very clearly on a price and volume chart. Yet, when these buyers and sellers are pulled in each direction by the market, there is an uneasy feeling about participating.
The erratic behavior in pr...Read More
The European Central Bank recently announced a trillion- dollar package to fight inflation. Whatever these central banks do will not have any effect on the world, short-term.
The ECB program involves printing 60-billion euros per month, which is nearly three-quarters of a trillion euros per annum, and they will start in March 2015 and end in September 2016. Their goal is an inflation target of two percent. The program involves the buying of euro-denominated assets. A bankrupt Europe does not...Read More
Too many traders, trading psychology means dealing with negative emotions like fear and greed. We all know that negative emotions can cause trading difficulties. However, many of us don’t know that the way we think can cause big problems, too. We can be blind-sided by our thinking and decision making—especially when we use our normal, everyday problem-solving approaches in trading. These are traders’ mental blind spots, and they crop up in every trader’s trading. The irony is we usually ...Read More