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Market Commentary

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Straddle Monsanto, A Bearish Call

Monsanto Company is scheduled to report earnings before the opening bell of Wednesday’s session.  The company is expected to report negative growth, with analysts projecting EPS of $2.93 on $5.58 billion in revenue.  For the same quarter one year ago, Monsanto reported EPS of $3.07 on $5.83 billion in revenue. 

MON shares haven’t made investors jolly in 2015 – the stock is down nearly 5.5% on the year.  The stock has traded in 52-week range $105.76-$128.79, having clocked it’s high on June ...

Mar 31, 2015
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A Bright Morning, Indeed

Some days, the reality of the market hits me like a clear, crisp sunny morning after a rain the night before – I step out into the light and I understand …

This morning, my perusal of the world news reminded that the market is about people, people just like you and me, and in that reality, it is as clear as a sunny morning after a rain that when market folks are happy, the market will reflect that, eventually.

  • Investor Confidence Rises in March by 15.1 Points to 120.1.

True, in the moment, th...

Mar 31, 2015
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ESM5: Slap Some Lipstick On That Pig!

Yesterday

Whoever said markets are not predictable wasn't paying attention to the price manipulation that often paints the tape around the end of each quarter.

Every professional in the market knows that largely unjustified rallies are something to expect at the end of the quarter, when stock funds set their ending asset values and bonuses are calculated. The market may be acting like a pig, but it somehow contrives to look a little better at the close.

That's essentially what happened yester...

Mar 31, 2015
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Home On The Range

To reiterate the high points of yesterday’s forecast, the fast decline in the NQ on Wednesday created a speed zone that has very little resistance to rebound action. The reason is that sellers were liquidated in that zone. With few sellers lurking to get out at breakeven, it doesn’t take much volume to levitate the market, and the NQ rose more than 1%.

This took the NQ about half way up the water spout, pausing at 4383, which is an important Low Volume Node. Remember, low volume levels have ...

Mar 31, 2015
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A Short Week, Not Necessarily Small Gains

The geopolitical context was to blame for this week's sell-off in the market that basically erased the previous week's gains, placing major market indices back at support level. So, what was the reason behind Monday's rally? Actually, the bounce was expected for many reasons.

  • First, we are now accustomed to traders and investors “buying the dip.”
  • Second, we are still running in a strong, power trend on all large time frames.
  • Third, it is the last two days of the quarter, and we are seeing mon...
Mar 31, 2015
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Featured Stories

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Avoid the Wash & Rinse Cycle

I’ve been contributing a daily review and forecast for the S&P or Nasdaq futures for over a month because this is the market I personally trade. However, individuals coming to disintermediated, zero-sum markets such as futures from other “normal” markets such as equities, may not be aware of the critical differences.

Asset markets such as stocks serve institutions and the general public. About 50% of households are invested in the stock market, whereas futures markets have traditionally serve...

Mar 30, 2015
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The Importance Of Follow Through -- Be Patient

Many of us are trained to look for tops and bottoms and game the markets accordingly.  For the most part, this is the way our brains work; yet, intuitively speaking, that is just the wrong approach.  Finding tops and bottoms is generally a loser's game, but following through after seeing a top/bottom take place can be the most lucrative profit opportunity. 

Our minds think in terms of finding the best value, letting prices fall to levels that we are willing to accept.  Wal-Mart is a great exa...

Mar 30, 2015
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Oil-Dollar Breakdown, Higher Prices To Come?

Oil prices have been under pressure as the dollar soars. For many, they believe that the strength in the dollar is a major reason why oil will not be able to rally. Yet the truth is that while in recent years, the dollar-oil inverse correlation has been very tight, throughout history that has not always been the case. In fact, in the oil market, as well as other commodities, we may be at the verge of a total breakdown of what has been considered to be an almost dogmatic truth - which is as th...

Mar 27, 2015
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Las Vegas Sands (LVS) – A Value Play on the Rising Asian Consumer and the U.S. Economic Recovery

Over the last 12 months, Macau casino gaming stocks are down by an average of 50% as the world’s largest casino-gaming market experienced an unprecedented decline in gross gaming revenues . GGR in Macau experienced its first yearly decline since data became publicly available in 2002, falling by 2.6% last year to $44 billion as a result of the Chinese government’s anti-graft movement, Macau’s hotel room constraints, and a slowing Chinese economy.

The first two months of 2015 was more of the s...

Mar 25, 2015
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Retirement: How QE Ate Your Pension

The last time I started ranting about the evils of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing program it was about how the Fed was pushing 50- and 60-year-olds out of the workforce and into “retirement” by creating a business environment that makes it more profitable to manipulate a company's finances than to actually make stuff and sell it.

Now here's the rest of the story: the same process that is pushing you or someone you know out of a job is going to make it unlikely you will ever get en...

Mar 24, 2015
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